Week 11 College Football Lock Picks In The Spotlight

Posted by Eric Williams on Monday,November 7, 2016 1:14, EST in

The Maryland Terrapins, and two teams with the identical surname of Tigers – are in the spotlights I offer up a trio of Week 11 college football lock picks. Now, let’s get started.

Here’s A Closer Look At The Week 11 College Football Lock Picks In The Spotlight

 

 

No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes at Maryland Terrapins

When: Saturday, November 12, 2016 at 3:30 PM ET
Where: Maryland Stadium
TV: ESPN
NCAAF Odds: Maryland Terrapins +27.5

Analysis: The Maryland Terrapins haven’t beaten a nationally ranked team since 2010 and they’re not going to pull off the shocking upset over No. 6 Ohio State in this contest either. The Buckeyes beat nationally-ranked Nebraska to a pulp this past weekend and will do the same to a Maryland team that got smacked senseless in its 59-3 loss against No. 2 Michigan on Saturday.

Ohio State has won 11 of their last 12 road games and they’ll have the best player on the field in quarterback J.T. Barrett, the dual-threat signal-caller that has completed 64.5 percent of his passes for 1,965 yards with 21 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Defensively, Ohio State is giving up just 13.8 points per game and Maryland has been held to 14 or less three times in their last five games.

The Terps do have a quality quarterback in Perry Hills, but they’ve got holes at just about every other position on both sides of the ball. Maybe it’s me, but I smell a blowout.

Pick: Ohio State -29 Points

Vanderbilt Commodores at Missouri Tigers

When: Saturday, November 12, 2016 at 3:30 PM ET
Where: Memorial Stadium
TV: SEC Network
NCAAF Odds: Missouri Tigers -3.5

Analysis: I have absolutely no idea why the Missouri Tigers are three-point favorites against the Vanderbilt Commodores, even at home, seeing as how they’ve dropped five straight games and six of their last seven. Sure, the Tigers average a healthy 31.8 points per game, but they’re also allowing a whopping 30.4 points per game defensively and have a quarterback in Drew Lock that is completing a pedestrian 54.3 percent of his passes with 19 touchdowns but eight costly interceptions.

More importantly, Vanderbilt put up a great effort in narrowly falling to Auburn 23-16 this past weekend. I know the Commodores have a modest offense, but they’re also pretty good on defense as they limit the opposition to just 21.6 points per contest. I’m going with Vandy running back Ralph Webb (901 yards, 6 TDs) to be the best player on the fielding this ‘Under the Radar’ Week 11 SEC matchup.

Missouri is 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. Vanderbilt has issues, but the Commodores are also an impressive 17-8 ATS in their last 25 road games and 7-2 ATS following an SU loss. 62 percent of the betting public likes Vanderbilt – and I say rightfully so!

Pick: Vanderbilt +3.5 Points

 

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No. 8 Auburn Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs

When: Saturday, November 12, 2016 at 2:33 PM ET
Where: Sanford Stadium
TV: CBS
NCAAF Odds: Georgia Bulldogs +10

Analysis: The Georgia Bulldogs (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) and Auburn Tigers both recorded narrow wins this past weekend, but the streaking eighth-ranked Tigers are the easy pick to get past a Georgia team that dropped each of its two previous games before winning this past weekend. Young quarterback Jacob Eason is clearly gifted and he could become a Heisman Trophy contender at some point in his young collegiate career, but right now, Eason is very young and it often shows at the worst time possible time.

Not only that, but gifted running back Nick Chubb is still not fully recovered from his torn ACL and has not regained the form that made him arguably the best back in the country just a couple of seasons ago. Auburn has won six games in a row, but had to fight tooth and nail to get past Vanderbilt in its 23-16 win on Saturday.

The Tigers have found they have a potential superstar in quarterback Sean White, with the unheralded signal-caller completing an incendiary 69.1 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and just two interceptions.

Defensively, the Auburn defense is limiting its opponents to just 16 points per game. Combine that with the fact that Georgia is an awful 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an SU win. Auburn (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. The Tigers are better in all three phases and will get both, the SU win and ATS cover!

Pick: Auburn -10 Points