Week 11 College Football Betting Pick: Boston College Eagles At Florida State SeminolesWhen: 7:30 PM ET, Friday, November 11, 2016
Where: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Florida
Live Stream: Watch ESPN
NCAAF Odds: Florida State -21
Boston CollegeBoston College (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) has lost three of its last four games and enters this matchup coming off a resounding 52-7 blowout loss against No. 6 Louisville last weekend. Still, BC has a chance to get a bowl berth, so they’ll be going all out against the Seminoles.
The good news for the Eagles is that they have an elite defense that limits the opposition to just 23.0 points per game and ranks second in the ACC against the run (106.6 yards). Unfortunately, you’d never know it from their last game as they allowed Louisville quarterback and leading Heisman Trophy candidate Lamar Jackson to pass for 231 yards and four touchdowns while rushing 15 times for an additional 185 yards and three scores.
While the Boston College Eagles rank 15th in the nation in total defense and eighth against the run, the team’s offense leaves a lot to be desired. BC is averaging just 19.4 points per game to rank 122nd nationally and averages just 154.6 passing yards per contest (117th). Quarterback Patrick Towles has completed a discouraging 51 percent of his passes and the Eagles are ranked 88th in the nation in rushing.
Florida StateThe Seminoles (6-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) bounced back from a loss against No. 3 Clemson in their previous game to beat NC State 24-20 last weekend in a hard-fought comeback victory. Now, the ‘Noles will be looking to help gifted junior running back Dalvin Cook become Florida State’s all-time leading rusher when the Seminoles take on Boston College.
Cook needs 127 yards to pass Warrick Dunn (3,959) for the top spot in Florida State history, but he may not get it, seeing as how he was held to a modest 65 yards against the Wolfpack last weekend and will face a Boston College defense that routinely shuts down opposing runners. Head coach Jimbo Fisher told reporters this week that his team is still playing hard despite being out of contention for the College Football Playoff and the ACC title game.
“They still believe in each other, believe in what we’re doing and they believe in this program,” Fisher said. “And they want to be part of history and what this program has meant in the past. I think that carries them today. There’s a lot of pride in this group.”
Florida State averages a healthy 33.6 points per game to rank 41st nationally but gives up a generous 28.8 points per contest to rank 72nd nationally. For the season, Cook has rushed for 1,134 yards and 13 touchdowns while young quarterback Deondre Francois has completed 60.0 percent of his passes for 2,492 yards with 12 TD passes and four picks.
Expert Prediction and PickBoston College got smacked around really bad by Louisville last weekend and I’m expecting Florida State to do something close to that on Friday night, although I’m going to back BC to narrowly cover the spread.
The Eagles are a bankroll-boosting 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games and 4-1 ATS in their last five road dates against Florida State. Conversely, the Seminoles are just 2-4 ATS in their last six home games and 2-3 ATS over their last five games overall. Dalvin Cook doesn’t set the school record for career rushing yards in this contest, nor do the ‘Noles cover the spread.