Week 11 College Football Upset Picks

Posted by Eric Williams on Monday,November 7, 2016 5:14, EST in

While the Michigan State Spartans, Texas Longhorns and ninth-ranked Oklahoma Sooners will all look to avoid upsets in their respective Week 11 college football matchups, I’m thinking all three teams are facing a ton of trouble against their underdog opponents. Now, let’s find out why!

A Closer Look At The Week 11 College Football Upset Picks

 

 

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Michigan State Spartans

When: Saturday, November 12, 2016 at 12:00 pm (Spartan Stadium)
NCAAF Odds: Michigan State Spartans -14.5

Analysis: Unranked Rutgers (2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS) might be in a bad way right now, having lost six straight games coming into this contest including their heartbreaking 33-27 loss to Indiana on Saturday, but the Scarlet Knights are still the pick to get the ATS cover against a reeling Michigan State (2-7 SU, 2-7 ATS) team that has lost a mind-boggling seven consecutive games.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have lost nine of their last 12 road games and quarterback Chris Laviano is completing an ugly 48.3 percent of his passes, but hell, Michigan State signal-caller Brian Lewerke hasn’t been much better in completing 54.4 percent of his pass attempts.

Sure, Rutgers averages a paltry 19.4 points per game, but again, Michigan State isn’t much better in putting up 23.6 points per game. The story is the same on defense with Rutgers allowing a whopping 36.8 points per game, but Michigan State giving up 30.1 points per contest. Forget about Rutgers’ pitiful ATS marks…if you’ve seen Michigan State at any point over the last two months, you know that them being a 14-point favorite over anyone is completely insane!

Pick: Rutgers +14 Points

No. 11 West Virginia Mountaineers at Texas Longhorns

When: Saturday, November 12, 2016 at 12:00 PM ET
Where: Memorial Stadium
TV: FS1
NCAAF Odds: Texas Longhorns -1.5

Analysis: The Texas Longhorns (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) might be playing at home in their Week 11 matchup against the 11th-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers (7-1 SU, 3-5 ATS), but I still can’t understand why they’re favored against a Mountaineers team that has suffered just one loss this season and is clearly better than the Horns.

The West Virginia rolled all over Kansas in its 48-21 win on Saturday and have a really good, if underrated quarterback in Skyler Howard. More importantly for me however is the fact that the Mountaineers have an elite defense that limits the opposition to just 20.6 points per game. Texas has won two straight, but those wins came against two teams (Baylor and Texas Tech) that both play little to no defense whatsoever.

I like Texas signal-caller Shane Buechele, but I’m expecting West Virginia’s stingy defense to force him into at least one costly interception while the Mountaineers have their way offensively against a Longhorns defense that gives up an overly generous 33.2 points per game. C’mon people…West Virginia wins outright to easily cover the spread!

Pick: West Virginia +1.5 Points

 

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No. 25 Baylor Bears at No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners

When: Saturday, November 12, 2016 at 12:00 PM ET
Where: Memorial Stadium
NCAAF Odds: Oklahoma Sooners -14.5
TV: ABC, ESPN2

Analysis: The 25th-ranked Baylor Bears (6-2 SU, 2-6 ATS) have dropped two straight games and got blown out of the water in their stunning 62-22 loss to rival TCU this past weekend, but I like them rebound in a big way to at least cover the college football betting line against the ninth-ranked Oklahoma Sooners (7-2 SU, 3-6 ATS) in Week 11.

If you don’t know, the Bears have five wins over ranked teams since the start of the 2014 season. I know quarterback Seth Russell is completing just 55.5 percent of his passes, but he’s also thrown 19 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Russell has some elite talent to work with in wide receiver KD Cannon and the Bears average a jaw-dropping 278.5 yards per contest.

The Oklahoma Sooners have suffered four home losses since the start of the 2014 season, so it’s not like they can’t be beaten at home. I know gifted quarterback Baker Mayfield is completing an incendiary 71.2 percent of his passes for 2,912 yards with 31 touchdowns and six interceptions, but the Sooners have struggled against good opponents and have won their last six games mostly by beating the likes of teams like Iowa State, Kansas and K-State.

Besides, with the Sooners giving up a whopping 31.6 points per game defensively, I believe the Bears will put more than enough points on the board to keep the final score well inside the two-touchdown margin. The Bears are 18-8 ATS in their L/26 games against a team with a winning record and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games against the Sooners.

Pick: Baylor +14 Points