Week 11 Preview: FSU at Clemson NCAAF Spread & Expert Pick

Week 11 Preview: FSU at Clemson NCAAF Spread & Expert Pick

Written by on November 8, 2017

Everyone had circled this Saturday’s game between Florida State and Clemson as one of the most important games of the year. However, the Noles have been huge disappointments and the No. 4 Tigers are huge NCAAF spread favorites as they look to clinch the ACC Atlantic Division for a third straight season. Clemson is favored by -16 in Week 11.

Week 11 Preview: FSU at Clemson NCAAF Spread & Expert Pick

When: Saturday, 3:30 PM ETWhere: Memorial Stadium, ClemsonTV: ESPNStream: WatchESPNRadio: 103.1 FM (FSU) / 105.5 FM (Clemson)Opening NCAAF Spread: Clemson -16 (46)

Last Season

Clemson was ranked third last year when it beat No. 12 FSU 37-34 to win for the first time in 10 years in Tallahassee. Deshaun Watson completed 27 of 43 passes for 378 yards with two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. His 34-yard pass to Jordan Leggett and 2-point conversion with 2:06 remaining gave Clemson the lead. Watson also had 52 yards rushing on 17 carries. Wayne Gallman led Clemson’s rushing attack with 82 yards and a pair of touchdowns. FSU fell short despite Dalvin Cook’s career-high four touchdowns. The junior had 136 of his 169 yards rushing in the second half and had two touchdown runs of 40-plus yards. Watson, Gallman and Cook are all in the NFL now.The winner of each of the past six games (Florida State 2012-14; Clemson 2011, 2015-16) has gone on to represent the Atlantic Division and win the ACC Championship Game.

Series History

  • Total Meetings: 30
  • First Meeting: November 7th, 1970. Tallahassee, Florida
  • Last Meeting: October 29th, 2016. Tallahassee, Florida
  • All-Time Series: FSU 20-10-0
  • Largest Margin of Victory: FSU 57-0 (1993)
  • Longest Win Streak: FSU 11 (1992-2002)
  • Current Win Streak: Clemson 2 (2015-2016)

Why Bet On Florida State;s NCAAF Spread?

The Noles (3-5) have made a bowl in an NCAA-record 35 straight years but that will be in major jeopardy with a loss here. FSU comes off a 27-24 win over Syracuse – the team that upset Clemson earlier this year. Syracuse drove to Florida State’s 25-yard line with six seconds to play, but senior kicker Cole Murphy’s 43-yard kick sailed wide left as time expired. It was Murphy’s second miss in three tries, and it came on a day when FSU’s Ricky Aguayo made both of his attempts.Cam Akers ran for touchdowns of 63 and 54 yards, and Nyqwan Murray caught a 51-yard touchdown pass from James Blackman for the Noles. Akers carried 22 times for a career-high 199 yards, and added another 18 yards through the air. Along the way, he became the third-leading freshman rusher in school history (695 yards), surpassing Devonta Freeman (579), Larry Key (602) and Travis Minor (623). Dalvin Cook (1,008) holds the record.Blackman continues to play efficiently in the fourth quarter of games this season, completing 29-of-51 attempts for 427 yards, with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Blackman is one of only nine quarterbacks nationally with four or more touchdowns without an interception in the final quarter.Defensively, the Noles recorded three sacks, six tackles for loss and a turnover to aid an overall positive outing. Additionally, the unit came away with two fourth-down stops, flipping the momentum each time.Under head coach Jimbo Fisher the Seminoles are 33-7 (.825) in November, December and January games, the most wins and best winning percentage in the ACC since 2010. The Seminoles also are the only team in the conference without a losing record in November and later in any season since 2010.The Seminoles have converted 18 of their last 20 red zone opportunities and have been the best red zone team in the country since Fisher was named head coach. Since 2010, FSU’s red zone percentage of .912 is more than a full percentage point higher than Oklahoma State, which ranks second with a scoring percentage of .896.FSU is 1-11 all-time against the reigning national champion, beating Miami 38-3 in 1984.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 18.62
  • Total Yards: 336.50
  • Pass Yards: 192.75
  • Rush Yards: 143.75
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 24.25
  • Total Yards: 361.75
  • Pass Yards: 204.75
  • Rush Yards: 157

Why Bet On Clemson’s NCAAF Spread?

The Tigers (8-1) escaped NC State 38-31 last week. Offensively, the Tigers were sparked by Deon Cain, who was Kelly Bryant’s favorite target and amassed 84 yards on a career-high nine catches, and Tavien Feaster, whose 89-yard rushing touchdown in the third quarter was tied for the third-longest run in Clemson history. Defensively, Ryan Carter had three pass breakups and hauled in a fourth-quarter interception that set up the Tigers’ final score of the game.Clemson rushed for over 200 yards in the game. The Tigers are now 44-1 under Dabo Swinney with at least 200 yards rushing, and this was the 40th consecutive win when rushing for at least 200 yards.It was Clemson’s ninth straight win over a top 25 team, extending a school record. It also tied the ACC record of nine in a row. Florida State also had a nine-game winning streak against top 25 teams from 2012-14. Clemson has now won seven in a row against teams it defeated by a touchdown or less in the previous season.Is Clemson a safe bet in Week 11?Clemson is 14-1 at night over the last two years with seven of the wins coming over top 20 teams. Only four of the 14 night wins have been at home. Clemson has won 27 of the last 28 and 44 of its last 47 at home.Clemson has won 21 of the last 22 against the ACC Atlantic. The Tigers have won 50 of their last 52 against unranked teams. Clemson has won 52 straight games when holding the opposition under 23 points (dates to 2010).The home team has won 12 of the last 15 games in this series. Since 2003, Clemson won at Florida State in 2006 and 2016. Florida State’s only win at Clemson since 2001 was in 2013. So two of the last three times the visiting has won, that visiting team has gone on to win the National Championship

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 32.89
  • Total Yards: 443.23
  • Pass Yards: 222.67
  • Rush Yards: 220.56
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 15.11
  • Total Yards: 305.22
  • Pass Yards: 182.33
  • Rush Yards: 122.89

Latest NCAAF Betting Trends

  • FSU is 0-5 ATS in the last 5 games
  • FSU is 19-6 SU in the last 25 games on the road
  • The total went UNDER in 6 of Florida State’s last 8 games
  • Clemson is 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 games
  • Clemson is 13-1 SU in the last 14 games
  • The total went UNDER in 5 of Clemson’s last 6 games

Expert Prediction & Week 11 Betting Pick

Clemson won’t lose this, but it’s FSU’s bowl game. Noles cover the NCAAF spread.