College Football Week 11 Upset Picks

Posted by Alex Murphy on Tuesday,November 8, 2016 10:58, EST in

Check out more College Football Upset Picks for this week! Baylor heads to Oklahoma after suffering its worst loss of the season. Can the Bears bounce back on the road against the Sooners? How will Miami fare on the road versus Virginia after beating the heck out of Pittsburgh at home in their last? What will be Vanderbilt’s fate in their SEC matchup against Missouri on Saturday?

College Football Week 11 Upset Picks

#17 Baylor at 14 Oklahoma

When: Saturday, Nov. 12 at 12:00 pm ET
Where: Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
TV: ABC/ESPN 2
Odds: Baylor +14.5

Analysis: Baylor has now lost 2 in a row after winning their first 6 games of the season. The Bears suffered a terrible 22 to 62 loss to TCU as a -7 home favorite in their last game. It was the worst performance, by far, from Baylor on both sides of the ball. The defense was as bad as it has been all season long.

But the Bears have a chance to turn things around against Oklahoma this Saturday. Baylor is a much better team than their 34 to 35 loss to Texas a couple of weeks ago and their stunning defeat to TCU this past Saturday imply. The Bears average 40 points and 542 yards of offense.

Oklahoma’s defense isn’t all that great. Oklahoma’s offense should have a tough time keeping up with Baylor. I think the 14.5 points comes into play in this Big 12 throw down.

Week 11 College Football Upset Pick: Baylor

Miami at Virginia

When: Saturday, Nov. 12 at 12:00 pm ET
Where: Scotts Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
TV: ACC Net
Odds: Virginia +10

Analysis: Miami bounced back from a 4-game losing streak to put a serious beating onto Pittsburgh in their last. The Hurricanes scored 51 points against the Panthers’ D while giving up only 28 points.

Miami may have gotten back on track. But the Canes are due for a letdown after such an awesome performance. Miami’s opponent on Saturday, the Virginia Cavaliers, are 4-4 against the spread even though they are 2-7 straight up.

On paper, Miami should blow out the Cavaliers. I don’t think it’s going to happen. The Canes are only 2-7 ATS versus team with a losing record. They’re 1-5 against the spread in the last 6 meeting with Virginia. The underdog is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Virginia is the underdog. I think they keep it close.

Week 11 College Football Upset Pick: Virginia

Vanderbilt at Missouri

When: Saturday, Nov. 12 at 3:30 pm ET
Where: Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO
TV: SEC Net
Odds: Vanderbilt +3.5

Analysis: I’m surprised that Vanderbilt is the underdog in this matchup. Vandy is only 4-7 straight up. But, they were terrific against Auburn in their last, a 16 to 23 loss as a +25 road underdog. The Commodores are better than Mizzou.

But Vanderbilt is the underdog against Missouri on Saturday, Nov. 12. Mizzou has lost 5 in a row. The Tigers have lost 6 out of their last 7 games. It’s hard to imagine Missouri’s offense putting up a ton of points against a Vanderbilt defense that hasn’t allowed more than 23 points points in their last 5 games.

I think Vanderbilt is a straight up play in this SEC battle.

Week 11 College Football Upset Pick: Vanderbilt