The TCU Horned Frogs will look to take another step toward becoming bowl eligible while handing their Big 12 rivals, the 13th-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys, a damaging loss that could alter their postseason bowl hopes.
Now, let’s find out if the Horned Frogs can cover the NCAAF betting line as a surprising home favorite.
Analyzing The Week 12 College Football Free Picks: Cowboys At Horned Frogs
When: Saturday, November 19, 2016 at 12:00 PM ET
Where: Amon Carter Stadium
Live Stream: FOX Sports GO
The Line: TCU Horned Frogs -4 / Over/Under
Why Bet on Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) has won five straight and comes into this Week 12 matchup off a thrilling 45-44 win over high-scoring Texas Tech last weekend despite failing to cover the spread as an 11-point favorite.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys have won seven of their last eight road games behind underrated quarterback Mason Rudolph who is completing an impressive 65.5 percent of his passes for 3,384 yards with 24 touchdowns and four interceptions. Rudolph has tossed 10 TD passes over his last three games.
Wide receivers James Washington and Jalen McCleskey have combined for 1,852 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns while running back Justice Hill has rushed for a team-high 789 yards and five touchdowns. The Cowboys average a stellar 41.3 points per game to rank 13th nationally in scoring while allowing 29.3 points per game to rank 74th nationally.
Why Bet on TCU
The Horned Frogs (5-4 SU, 2-7 ATS) have struggled all season to find consistency and its new identity after losing the vast majority of their star players from last season’s title-contending team, including do-it-all quarterback Trevone Boykin.
TCU had a bye last week but dropped two straight and three of its previous four before blowing out Baylor 62-22 two weeks ago, although the Bears were without starting quarterback Seth Russell for the vast majority of the contest. The Horned Frogs are averaging a healthy 37.4 points per game to rank 26th nationally in scoring as quarterback Kenny Hill has completed 61.6 percent of his passes for 2,694 yards for a modest 14 touchdowns, but 10 costly interceptions.
Wide receivers Taj Williams and John Diarse have combined for 1,023 receiving yards and six touchdowns while running back Kyle Hicks has rushed for a team-high 789 yards and 12 touchdowns. Defensively, TCU is allowing 29.2 points per game to rank 73rd nationally.
Expert Prediction and Pick
Maybe it’s me, but I have absolutely no idea why the Oklahoma State Cowboys are 4.5-point underdogs against a TCU team that just isn’t very competitive this season. While both teams allow just over 29 points per game defensively, for me, the streaking Cowboys are the better team in all three phases and have the big edge at quarterback.
Oklahoma State has gone 4-2 ATS in their last six games and a bankroll-boosting 8-4 TS over their last dozen road games. Conversely, TCU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games and a winless 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Oklahoma State wins outright to cover the college football betting line.