Week 12 College Football Expert Picks: Ohio State At Michigan State

Posted by Eric Williams on Saturday,November 19, 2016 9:24, EST in

The Michigan State Spartans might be in the midst of one of their worst seasons in recent memory, but they can take a ton of pleasure by upsetting the second-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes when they host their longtime Big Ten rivals at Spartan Stadium on Saturday.

Will the Spartans get the outright win at home to stun the Buckeyes and derail their playoff hopes or can they cover the college football betting lines as three-touchdown home dogs? Let’s find out now.

A Closer Look At The Week 12 College Football Expert Picks: Buckeyes At Spartans

When: 12:00 PM ET, Saturday, November 19, 2016
Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: Watch ESPN
Odds: Ohio State -21.5

 

 

Ohio State

The Buckeyes (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) moved up to No.2 in the AP national rankings after three of the top four teams lost last weekend and they emphatically pounded overmatched Maryland 62-3 to cover the NCAAF betting line as an insane 30-point favorite.

The Ohio State Buckeyes have won 15 of their last 16 road games and dual-threat quarterback J.T. Barrett has been at the center of it all. Ohio State is averaging stupendous 46.5 points per game to rank fourth in scoring nationally as their fleet-footed signal-caller has completed a blistering 64.7 percent of his passes for 2,218 yards with 23 touchdowns and just four interceptions.

Receivers Curtis Samuel and Noah Brown have combined for 1,095 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns while running back Mike Weber has rushed for a team-high 935 yards and seven touchdowns. Defensively, Ohio State is allowing 12.7 points per game to rank third in the nation in points allowed.

Michigan State

The Spartans (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS) rolled all over beleaguered Rutgers last weekend by routing their conference rivals 49-0 to easily cover the spread as a 14.5-point favorite.

For the season, quarterback Tyler O’Connor is completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 1,747 yards with 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Receivers R.J. Shelton and Donnie Corley have combined for 1,107 receiving yards and eight touchdowns while running back LJ Scott has rushed for a team-high 775 yards and five touchdowns.

The Spartans average a modest 26.1 points per game to rank 86th nationally in scoring while allowing 27.1 points per game defensively to rank 61st nationally.

 

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Expert Prediction and Pick

I’m going to get right to the point by saying that I like Michigan State to at least cover the spread as three-touchdown underdogs for two big reasons. First, the Spartans are playing at home in this huge Big Ten battle where they should get a huge boost from their crazed fans.

In addition to that, the Spartans absolutely hate their longtime conference rivals and have a chance to put a huge dent in their playoff hopes, leading me to believe they’re going to raise the level of their mostly pedestrian play this season.

The Buckeyes are and 4-1 ATS in their last five games in the month of November, but the Spartans are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games in November while the underdog in this longtime rivalry has gone 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. With Ohio State going 2-4 ATS in its last six games and Michigan State winning 20 of its last 25 home games, I say the Spartans are the pick to cover the huge spread with room to spare.

Pick: Michigan State +21.5 Points