Week 12 College Football Upset Picks

Posted by Eric Williams on Tuesday,November 15, 2016 3:50, EST in

If you’re looking for some value-packed Week 12 upset picks featuring underdogs that have a high probability of upsetting their favored counterparts, then you’ve come to the right place gridiron gaming enthusiasts!

With a trio of Week 12 favorites looking like they could all be in big trouble against their underdog opponents, let’s find out who they are.

Analyzing The Week 12 College Football Upset Picks

 

 

No. 2 Ohio State at Michigan State

When: 12:00 PM ET, Saturday, November 19, 2016
Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan
TV: ESPN
Odds: Ohio State -21.5

Analysis: The Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) may have moved up to No.2 in the AP national rankings after three of the top four teams lost last weekend, but I’m going with the Michigan State Spartans (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS) to at least cover the spread as three-touchdown underdogs for two big reasons.

First, the Spartans are playing at home in this huge Big Ten battle where they should get a huge boost from their crazed fans and secondly, the Spartans absolutely hate their longtime conference rivals, leading me to believe they’re going to raise the level of their mostly pedestrian play this season.

With Ohio State going 2-4 ATS in its last six games and Michigan State winning 20 of its last 25 home games, I say the Spartans are the pick to cover the huge spread with room to spare.

Pick: Michigan State +21.5

No. 13 Oklahoma State +4.5 at TCU

When: 12:00 PM ET, Saturday, November 19, 2016
Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
TV: FS1
Odds: TCU -4.5

Analysis: Maybe it’s me, but I have absolutely no idea why the Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) are 4.5-point underdogs against a TCU Horned Frogs (5-4 SU, 2-7 ATS) team that has struggled all season to find consistency and its new identity after losing the vast majority of their star players last season including do-it-all quarterback Trevone Boykin.

No matter the spread, the streaking Cowboys are the better team in all three phases although both teams allow just over 29 points per game defensively. Oklahoma State has won five straight while TCU dropped two straight and three of its previous four before beating a Baylor team that played without starting quarterback Seth Russell for the vast majority of their loss last weekend.

Oklahoma State is 4-2 ATS in its last six games and a bankroll-boosting 8-4 TS over their last dozen rod dates. Conversely, TCU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games and a winless 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Oklahoma State wins outright to cover the college football betting line.

Pick: Oklahoma State +4.5 Points

 

Get up to $1000 SU Bonus today!
 

No. 6 Wisconsin at Purdue

When: 12:00 PM ET, Saturday, November 19, 2016
Where: Ross Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Indiana
TV: ABC
Odds: Wisconsin -27.5

Analysis: The sixth-ranked Wisconsin Badgers (8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS) have won four straight games and looked as good as they have all season in their emphatic 48-3 blowout win over Illinois last weekend, but I’ going with the lowly Purdue Boilermakers (3-7 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) as my upset pick in this contest simply because the Badgers generally don’t blow their opponents out as much as they wear them down.

I know the Boilermakers are coming off a 28-point loss to Northwestern on Saturday, but the Badgers only average 1.1 points per game more than the Boilermakers offensively and have beaten their longtime Big Ten rivals by more than 27.5 points three times in the last 10 meetings. While Purdue has gone 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games and Wisconsin has gone 6-1 ATS in its last seven games, I’m going with the Boilermakers to narrowly cover the high spread.

Pick: Purdue +27.5 Points