The Penn State Nittany Lions will look to take another step toward a berth in the Big Ten title game when they host the Michigan State Spartans.
The Florida State Seminoles will look to take down their in-state rivals, the Florida Gators while the Texas Tech Red Raiders look to outscore struggling Baylor Bears in their Big 12 conference clash. Now, let’s find out which teams are offering the most value in the trio of absolutely huge Week 13 college football matchups.
Analyzing The Week 13 College Football Trio Of Huge Matchups Lock Picks
Michigan State Spartans (3-8) at Penn State Nittany Lions (9-2)
When: Saturday, November 26, 2016 at 3:30PM ET
NCAF Odds: Penn State -12.5 / Total: 55
Analysis: Michigan State Spartans put up a great effort last weekend but ended up on the wrong side of a heartbreaking 17-16 loss to No. 2 Ohio State. Penn State has covered the spread in four straight games including their emphatic 39-0 shutout win over Rutgers last weekend as a 25-point favorite.
For this Big Ten battle, I’m going to advise you to back the Nittany Lions to get the win and narrow ATS cover against a Michigan State team that I expect to be running on fumes after going all out last weekend in a bid to upset hated Ohio State. Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley has as much moxie as any quarterback in the country and the Nittany Lions also have an elite running back in Saquon Barkley that I believe is s good as any back in the country.
The Spartans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games while the Nittany Lions have gone 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Penn State has a shot to reach the Big Ten title game, making them the pick to get the win and narrow ATS cover to complete their transition from also-ran to legitimate national powerhouse.
Pick: Penn State 31 Michigan State 17
Florida Gators (8-2) at Florida State Seminoles (8-3)
When: Saturday, November 26, 2016 at 8:00 PM ET
NCAAF Odds: Florida State -7 / Total: 45.5
Analysis: Florida has won five of their last six games and comes into this contest off a hard-fought 16-10 win over LSU last weekend. The Gators average 25.2 points per game to rank 89th nationally in scoring, while also ranking a stellar fourth in points allowed (13.0 ppg). Florida State has won three straight and comes into this contest off a 45-14 blowout over Syracuse this past weekend. Running back Dalvin Cook rushed 28 times for 225 yards and four touchdowns to lead the Seminoles to victory.
For this huge in-state showdown, the Florida State Seminoles are the easy pick to win and cash in against a Florida Gators team that really struggles to score the ball this season. Florida is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against ACC teams while the Seminoles have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and a blistering 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Most importantly, the Gators just don’t have the offense to keep pace with the far more explosive Seminoles and won’t have an answer to Florida State quarterback Deondre Francois. The Seminoles win and find a way to narrowly cover the spread.
Pick: Florida State 31 Florida 21
Baylor Bears (6-4) at Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-7)
When: Friday, November 25, 2016 at 6:00 PM ET
NCAF Odds: Baylor -5.5 / Total: 84.5
Analysis: The Baylor Bears have lost four straight games and come into this Week 13 matchup off of a humbling 42-21 home loss to Kansas State last weekend. Texas Tech has lost three straight and six of their last seven games and has no shot at a bowl game appearance with four wins and only one game remaining.
Nevertheless, it is the Red Raiders that are my pick to get it done at home, mostly because they have an explosive offense that should be able to put its fair share of points on the board against Baylor’s underwhelming defense. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss and 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss.
Texas Tech has problems, but the Red Raiders are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games. I’m going with Texas Tech to get it done against Baylor and their inexperienced quarterback.
Pick: Texas Tech 42 Baylor 35