The Big 12 and SEC conference championships are in the spotlight as I offer up a pair of Week 14 college football ATS picks that have a high probability of playing out just as expected.
Now, let’s find out if the 11th-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys can pull off the upset over the seventh-ranked Oklahoma Sooners and whether or not the 15th-ranked Florida Gators can pull off an even bigger stunner over the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide.
In Depth Analysis On The Week 14 College Football Big 12 And SEC Title ATS Picks
Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-2) at Oklahoma Sooners (9-2)
When: Saturday, December 3, 2016 at 12:30 PM ET
NCAAF Odds: Oklahoma -12 / Total: 77.5
Analysis: The Oklahoma State Cowboys have won seven straight and come into this enormous matchup off a resounding 31-6 smack down over TCU two weeks ago. The Sooners have won eight in a row and enter this Big 12 battle coming off an emphatic 56-28 blowout over West Virginia two weeks ago.
For his Big 12 conference clash, I’m going to advise you to go with the 61 percent of the betting public that likes Oklahoma State to cover the double-digit point spread. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning record and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after rushing for more than 200 yards in their previous game.
Conversely, Oklahoma has gone an uninspiring 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games against a team with a winning road record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. While Oklahoma State has gone 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings, the bottom line for this matchup is that these two teams are very evenly matched and this contest should easily be decided by much closer to a field goal than the insane double-digit spread it currently is.
Oklahoma State covers the spread with room to spare while pushing the Sooners really hard for the outright win.
My Pick: Oklahoma 34 Oklahoma State 31
Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0) at Florida Gators (8-3)
When: Saturday, December 3, 2016 at 4:00 PM ET
NCAAF Odds: Alabama -21.5 / Total: 40.5
Analysis: The Florida Gators got smacked around in their humbling 31-13 loss to in-state rival Florida State last Saturday while never coming close to covering the spread as an 8.5-point road underdog.
Top-ranked Alabama pulled away from pesky Auburn last Saturday to record a nice 30-12 win over the Tigers despite failing to cover the college football betting line as a 20.5-point favorite.
While 60 percent of the betting public likes Florida to cover the spread as nearly three touchdown underdogs, I’m going to advise you to go against public perception, mostly because the Gators can’t score the ball consistently and will have huge trouble getting in the end zone against Alabama’s seriously stingy defense.
I know the Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games and 5-2-1 ATS spread following an SU loss, but Alabama is 5-1 ATS in their last half-dozen SEC games, 12-4 ATS in their L/16 games against a team with a winning record and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. Last but not least, Alabama is 9-2-1 ATS in their last dozen games against Florida. Alabama manhandles the offensively-challenged Gators to win going away.
My Pick: Alabama 35 Florida 10