Wisconsin at Michigan State Betting Lines & Expert Pick

Posted by Jordan Walterss on September 22, 2016 in

The game of the day in college football and one of just three featuring ranked teams has No. 11 Wisconsin visiting No. 8 Michigan State in what could be a preview of the Big Ten Championship Game and is the conference opener for both. UW has lost four straight in online college football betting in East Lansing.

How To Bet on the Wisconsin at Michigan State Betting Lines, Expert Pick & TV Info

When: Saturday, Sept. 24, Noon ET
Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing
TV: Big Ten Network
Radio: Wisconsin / Michigan State
Opening NCAA Football Lines: MSU -5.5 (43)

Why Bet on Wisconsin?

Last week as a huge favorite against Georgia State, Wisconsin escaped with a 23-17 win. Coach Paul Chryst pulled struggling starting quarterback Bart Houston for redshirt freshman Alex Hornibrook in the third quarter and Wisconsin leading 6-3. Hornibrook led three scoring drivers and finished 8 of 12 for 122 yards, including a 1-yard touchdown pass to Kyle Penniston with 7:25 left to give UW the lead for good. Houston, a senior, was 10-for- 18 for 91 yards. The Badgers didn’t commit a penalty during the game, marking the first time since Nov. 15, 1997 that the Badgers were not flagged for an infraction.

The Badgers improved to 3-0 on the season, the team’s best start since opening the 2011 season six consecutive wins. Wisconsin won its 38th consecutive non-conference game at Camp Randall Stadium, giving UW sole possession of the sixth-longest streak in FBS history. UW hasn’t lost a non-conference contest at home since Sept. 13, 2003. Wisconsin has held opponents to an average of 7.0 points per game over its last 11 non-conference home games, dating back to the start of the 2013 season.

It appears that Hornibrook will start this game. In two appearances off the bench this season, Hornibrook has completed 76.5 percent of his passes (13 of 17) for 183 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He engaged Houston in a quarterback competition that went deep into fall camp. Houston has completed 44 of 71 passes (62 percent) this season for 527 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He helped lead the game-winning drive in the season-opening upset of LSU.

Wisconsin has scored a touchdown on five of Houston’s 28 drives this season (18 percent). Hornibrook has led the Badgers to touchdowns on five of his nine drives (56 percent). UW is banged up at running back. Corey Clement, who has missed the last six quarters since suffering a left-ankle injury in the first half against Akron, was limited in practice this week. Backup Taiwan Deal, who rushed seven times for 34 yards last week against Georgia State before suffering a leg injury, also was limited. Redshirt freshman Bradrick Shaw, who suffered a left-leg injury on his final carry against Georgia State, hasn’t practiced. Getting Clement back would be a huge boost. He leads UW in rushing at 98.5 yards per game and was outstanding against a tough LSU front seven in the opener.

Why Bet on Michigan State?

The Spartans upset No. 18 Notre Dame 36-28 in South Bend last week. MSU rushed for 260 yards against the Irish, held the ball for ball for nearly 38 minutes and forced three turnovers. The Spartans were down 7-0 and scored 36 points in a row before holding on.

The Spartans have consistently produced wins against highly ranked teams under Mark Dantonio. Michigan State has won 10 of its last 13 games played against ranked opponents, including six out of the last seven (wins: No. 4 Baylor, No. 7 Oregon, No. 12 Michigan, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 4 Iowa, No. 18 Notre Dame; loss: No. 2 Alabama). MSU’s 10 wins over ranked teams since 2010 ranks tied for third most in the FBS.

Back-to- back wins over ranked teams would radically change the dynamic of the Spartans’ season. They become a threat not only to retain their Big Ten championship but to return to the College Football Playoff, joining Alabama as the only programs to advance to the national playoff in consecutive seasons.

Saturday’s game marks the 53rd meeting between Michigan State and Wisconsin and the first since 2012, when the Spartans topped the Badgers in overtime, 16-13, in Camp Randall Stadium. The four-year gap between meetings was the longest in series history since the Spartans began Big Ten Conference play in 1953. The Spartans lead the all-time series 30-22, including a 16-7 record in games played in East Lansing. The last seven games in the series have been decided by a combined total of 34 points (all seven games decided by 10 points or less).

My Expert Pick

Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.

Give the points in college football betting and go under the total.