Trace McSorley and the 20th-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions will look to hold it down at home to rebound from their big Week 10 loss when they host Jonathan Taylor and the Wisconsin Badgers in an intriguing Week 11 matchup of identical six-win teams. If you’re looking to find out which team is offering the best betting value against the college football odds, then let’s get to my expert pick right now.
Wisconsin vs Penn State NCAA Football Week 11 Odds & Preview
- When: Saturday, November 10, 2018, 12:00 PM ET
- Where: Beaver Stadium
- TV: ABC
- Radio: TuneIn
- Live Stream: ABC Go
- NCAA Football Week 11 Odds: Penn State -9 (Total 54.5)
- Overcast: -2°C/28°F
- Humidity: 42%
- Precipitation: 0%
- Cloud Cover: 82%
- Wind: 12 mph SSE
- Stadium Type: Open
Why Bet On Wisconsin?Why should you bet on the Badgers to get the outright win or cover the chalk as a near double-digit road dog? There are several good reasons actually. First, Penn State looked completely beatable in their humbling 42-7 blowout loss at Michigan last weekend. Another good reason is that the Badgers have the better defense in this contest – and one of the best in the country – in limiting the opposition to just 20.9 points per game to rank 20th nationally in points allowed.
Another good reason is that the Badgers have an offense that ranks a respectable 51st nationally by averaging 31.0 points per game. The Badgers come into this contest off a convincing 31-17 win over Rutgers last weekend despite never coming close to covering the spread as a 29-point home favorite. Running back Jonathan Taylor had a phenomenal game with 208 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 27 carries to help overcome a two-interception performance from quarterback Alex Hornibrook.
Why Bet On Penn State?Why should you bet on the Nittany Lions to hold it down at home to cover the chalk? There are some good reasons. First, the Nittany Lions have the more explosive offense in putting up a stellar 37.2 points per game to rank 25th nationally in scoring. Defensively, Penn State is also respectable in allowing 24.4 points per game to rank 51st nationally in points allowed. Another good reason is that Penn State is playing at home where they’ve gone 19-3 SU over their last 22 games.
Then, there’s the fact that the Nittany Lions have the far better quarterback in Trace McSorley, combined with the fact that Wisconsin’s Alex Hornibrook has been pedestrian at best in completing just 58.1 percent of his passes while tossing just four touchdown passes and a whopping six interceptions in his last three games. Another good reason is the fact that Penn State has dominated this series by winning three straight and five of the last six meetings overall while going 5-1 ATS along the way. Last but not least, the Nittany Lions also have some motivation after getting completely dominated in their humbling 42-7 road loss at No. 4 Michigan last weekend.
Latest Wisconsin vs Penn State NCAA Football Week 3 Betting Trends
- Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
- Wisconsin is 20-4 SU in its last 24 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Wisconsin’s last 6 games
- Penn State is 14-4-1 ATS in its last 19 games at home
- Penn State is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
- The total has gone OVER in 9 of Penn State’s last 12 games
Expert Analysis and PredictionI know Penn State is playing at home in this contest, but really, on paper, these two teams aren’t very far off from one another and this game just looks and feels like it should be far closer to a three-point spread than the nine points it’s sitting at.
I know the Nittany Lions are 13-4-2 ATS in their last 19 home games and 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games overall, but Wisconsin has gone 15-4 SU in their last 19 road games and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road dates. I like Trace McSorley and Penn State to get the big home win, but I like Wisconsin to cover the chalk with room to spread.
Score: Penn State 27 – Wisconsin 21