How To Bet Super Bowl 51 Spread And Why

Posted by Michael Hunt on Wednesday,February 1, 2017 8:59, EST in

So I’m here to tell you how to bet Sunday’s Super Bowl LI between the AFC champion New England Patriots and NFC champion Atlanta Falcons. The Patriots are -3.5 on Super Bowl 51 odds. Well, if I knew for sure how to bet on this game, I would be on my yacht somewhere. But let’s give it our best shot. I do believe that extra half-point will matter (I would buy the half-point if you want Atlanta and it’s at 3 at kickoff) and like the Falcons because of it.

How To Bet Super Bowl 51 Spread And Why

The Patriots are an astounding 15-3 against the spread this season including playoffs. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady will be making their seventh Super Bowl appearance together, the most NFL title games for any head coach and starting quarterback duo in league history.

Belichick and Brady have won four Super Bowls together, tied with Pittsburgh head coach Chuck Noll and quarterback Terry Bradshaw for the most by a head coach and starting quarterback combination. The Patriots have won nine consecutive games and advanced to the Super Bowl with a 36-17 victory over Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship Game at Gillette Stadium. In that contest, Brady passed for 384 yards and three touchdowns, including two scoring strikes to wide receiver Chris Hogan. Hogan finished the game with nine catches for a franchise postseason-record 180 yards and two touchdowns.

The only three games the Pats didn’t cover this year were:

Week 4 vs. Bills: This was the final game that Brady was suspended for Deflategate. Buffalo won 16-0 as a 3.5-point underdog. The Patriots, who moved into Gillette Stadium in 2002, were last blanked at home 6-0 by the New York Jets in 1993 at Foxboro Stadium. Tyrod Taylor connected with LeSean McCoy for a 7-yard touchdown pass in the first quarter, Dan Carpenter added three field goals for Buffalo. New England finished 1 for 12 on third downs and managed just 277 total yards. The Patriots drove into Buffalo territory only four times, with three of those drives ending in a lost fumble by rookie QB Jacoby Brissett, a missed field goal, and a turnover on downs.

Week 10 vs. Seattle: The Pats were -7.5 vs. Seattle and lost 31-24. Brady couldn’t connect with Rob Gronkowski on a fade pattern on fourth down as New England failed four times from inside the 2 in the dying moments. LeGarrette Blount, who earlier rushed for three touchdowns and led the NFL with 18 rushing this season, couldn’t get into the end zone from close range, nor could Brady on a pair of sneaks.

Week 12 at Jets: Pats were -8.5 and won 22-17. Brady tied Peyton Manning for most wins by a quarterback in NFL history, getting his 200th (since passing that mark) by throwing a go-ahead 8-yard touchdown pass to Malcolm Mitchell with 1:56 left. Brady improved to 22-6 in regular-season games against the Jets, joining Brett Favre as the only QBs in NFL history with at least 22 wins vs. two teams. Brady has 26 victories vs. Buffalo.

The Patriots are looking to tie the 1989 San Francisco 49ers as the only teams with 16 ATS wins in one season. That 49ers team was favored in 15 of the 16 regular-season games, including 9.5-point favorite or more a whopping seven times. They would cover the spread in six of those seven contests. San Francisco would cap off its season with the most dominant run in NFL history, outscoring opponents 126-26 en route to a Super Bowl XXIV triumph over the Denver Broncos (55-10). That’s the biggest margin of victory in Super Bowl history.

That’s all fine and good. But the Patriots haven’t faced a quarterback who finished in the Top 10 in the regular season in passer rating. The Falcons’ Matt Ryan was No. 1. That’s why I lean Atlanta here. Even if the Falcons don’t win, they will lose by only a field goal.