2016 New Orleans Saints Season Win Total Prediction

Posted by Jordan Walterss on July 25, 2016 in

The New Orleans Saints finished 7-9 in 2015 for the third time in four years and missed the playoffs. There was some talk that the team might move on from head coach Sean Payton, but he eventually agreed to a five-year extension. But QB Drew Brees still doesn’t have his extension. Could this be his final season in a New Orleans uniform? How much does he have left in the tank at age 37? The Saints have a wins total of 7 in NFL betting for the 2016 season.

Analysis on the 2016 New Orleans Saints Season Win Total Prediction

Total Win/Loss Odds Overview

After reeling off three straight wins and four of five to get to 4-4 last season, the Saints dropped a tough 34-28 loss to the Tennessee Titans, who ended up the worst team in the NFL. That loss was the start of a four game losing streak, which left the Saints at 4-8 and ended any playoff hopes.

Shortly after the conclusion of the 2016 season, Payton announced his plans to remain in New Orleans, saying he planned to finish his career with the Saints. Peyton was hired by New Orleans prior to the 2006 season, and he has the best record of any Saints head coach in team history. He has led the Saints to five postseason bids and the only Super Bowl win in franchise history. The 2009 season was the most successful in team history, and New Orleans finished with a 13-3 regular season record and a Super Bowl XLIV victory.

Why Betting On The Over?

Brees is playing for a new contract as he is set to make $30 million in the final year of his deal. And he’s still playing at a high level. Although he has battled a series of nagging injuries over the past two years, Brees led the NFL in passing for the fourth time in five seasons last year with 4,870 yards in just 15 games played. The offense ranked second in the league, the seventh time it has finished first or second in the 10 years since Brees and Payton arrived in The Crescent City. Brees became the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history in 2012, when he signed a five-year, $100 million contract with the Saints. Since then, his $20 million average has been passed up 11 times — including twice by Joe Flacco.

There is a sense around the team that after years of expensive free agency miscues and salary cap difficulties, there is actually a bedrock of affordable and potentially explosive talent on the roster. A 2016 second-round pick (Michael Thomas) and a 2014 first-round pick (Brandin Cooks) should be starting at wide receiver. A 2013 third-round pick (Terron Armstead) has developed into one of the five best offensive tackles in the league. First-round pick Sheldon Rankins has been as good as advertised, and lines up next to Cameron Jordan and in front of 2015 first-round pick Stephone Anthony.

Brees has a new target at tight end in Coby Fleener. The Saints signed him to a surprisingly-expensive, five-year $36 million contract in free agency. The 6-6, 251-pounder never had more than 54 catches or 774 yards in a season during his first four years with the Indianapolis Colts, and he has just 17 career TD catches. But tight ends usually thrive in this offense.

Why Betting On The Under?

CB Keenan Lewis was arguably the Saints’ defensive MVP from 2013-14, when he was playing at a Pro Bowl level and matching up routinely against top receivers. But his 2015 season was derailed by a summer hip injury that limited him to just six games and zero starts. Luckily for the Saints, Delvin Breaux emerged as a No. 1-caliber cornerback last season. But he needed a lot more help, and the Saints’ overall pass defense was abysmal in 2015.

The Saints can be playoff contenders if they can just make their defense respectable. But that has proved to be a tall order in recent years, as they have been wasting the back half of Brees’ prime. Their defense has ranked 31st or worse in three of the past four seasons — and last year they sank to new lows by shattering the NFL record for TD passes allowed (45). Now Dennis Allen takes over full-time as defensive coordinator, and the Saints signed veteran middle linebacker James Laurinaitis to help clean up all of their assignment and alignment errors. But they need veteran defensive backs Jairus Byrd and Lewis to get healthy again.

Offensive balance was a major reason for the success of the championship-winning 2009 Saints squad. New Orleans averaged 131.6 yards on 29.2 carries a game. In comparison, the 2015 Saints were down to 93.2 yards on 24.8 carries. Better ground production will create more opportunities for Brees in the passing game while taking some of the stress off the defense.

My Betting Prediction

The Saints will be fun to watch because they will be in a lot of high-scoring games. Just usually on the wrong side of them. Go under on NFL betting lines.