NFL Week 13 Betting Predictions Against the Spread
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)Week 13 NFL ATS Pick: Vikings (-4.5)
I wasn’t that enamored by the Vikings at the start of the season in 2015 and I doubted them for the majority of the season. As the records books would have it at the end of the season, I was wrong to underestimate the Vikings, winners of the NFC North division title in 2015. I won’t be making the same mistake of disrespecting this Minnesota team in 2015, especially after they led the entire NFL with a stellar 13-3 ATS mark to go along with an 11-win season in the SU lines. Using their offense that is less prone to mistakes and a defense that often cleans up any of the few mistakes they make every once in a while, the Vikings are a team capable of beating anyone, and the Dallas Cowboys shouldn’t be an exception. Tony Romo, coming off a season-ending injury and surgery, brings tons of risk as a starter. But even if he will maintain being a clutch QB, the Vikings’ defense has more than enough bodies to get to him and his targets. Then, of course, there is the big elephant in the room; Dallas has a 15-year hiatus in Minneapolis, sporting a 0-5 mark in its last five visits to Minnesota. So, although this game is very winnable for Dallas (on paper), the reality on the ground tells me to trust Minnesota for both the win and points, and that’s the pick I am strongly recommending here.
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (PK)Week 13 NFL ATS Pick: Falcons (PK)
Against my better judgment as a longtime fan of Alex Smith and the Chiefs, I am endorsing Atlanta as a pick here because of the following two reasons. First, the Chiefs will be traveling to Denver in Week 12, and knowing how the Broncos play physical football, KC is likely to come into Week 13 drained physically and possibly battered with a number of injuries. The Falcons, meanwhile, will be playing at home against Arizona in Week 12, a game that isn’t likely to be that physical. Atlanta should thus be the healthier of the two teams here, a factor that often proves very crucial down the stretch of the season. Secondly, and painfully as it is to admit this, the truth is that Matt Ryan is arguably a better QB than Alex Smith while the bevy of weapons at Ryan’s disposal cannot compare to Smith’s. When all is said and done, I do believe that the Falcons will come out as the better team in this fixture. FYI, Atlanta is 5-3 in its last 8 overall meetings against KC, including a 3-1 record in the last 4 meetings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Diego Chargers (-2)Week 13 NFL ATS Pick: Chargers (-2)
Let’s make one thing clear; Jameis Winston and Tampa Bay’s top-5 running offense from last season was a joy to watch. In fact, if Winston and his offense can clean up on their mistakes, they could even be a better unit in 2016. But to think that the Buccaneers—improved as they will be in 2016—will keep the Chargers tamed or even pull of an unlikely upset is simply disrespectful. Philip Rivers is among the best QBs in the nation and the Chargers made enough investments in offseason to see them have better D and O lines in 2016, which will almost definitely translate into efficiency on the field. And with all that, the Chargers—who own a healthy 8-2 record in their 10 meetings against Tampa Bay—should be a surefire NFL pick for the obvious win and cover in this mayonnaise-soft home clash.
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-3)Week 13 NFL ATS Pick: Seahawks (-3)
Though the Seahawks are expectedly favored to claim the win in this clash, you should be aware of the fact that the Panthers swept the Seahawks in their two meetings last season, with one of those wins coming in Seattle. There is therefore a chance that the underrated Panthers could be delivering another upset in this fixture. But then again, Seattle often plays its best football at home and the Seahawks went 5-0 over Carolina from Dec. 2010 to Jan. 2015, so bouncing back with win and cover in this revenge game for Russell Wilson and Co. should be very possible for the hosts.