NFL Conference Round ATS Betting Predictions & Picks

NFL Conference Round ATS Betting Predictions & Picks

Written by on January 16, 2019

In the NFC Championship, will Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams get the revenge they are looking for after falling to the New Orleans Saints during the regular season?

Over in the AFC, the question is the same for Patrick Mahomes and the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs as they look to hand Tom Brady and the New England Patriots some payback after narrowly falling to their conference counterparts during the regular season.

If you’re an NFL gridiron gamer that is super excited about this weekend’s pair of quickly approaching conference championship games and you’re looking for a bit of assistance to help you with your conference round ATS picks, then you’ve come to the right place!

Let’s get started with some insightful ATS betting information.

First and foremost, away teams have covered the spread this season more than their home counterparts by going 134-122-8 ATS (52.3%). You should also know that, despite their game-day status, favorites have gone just 118-138 ATS (46.09%). Making matters more challenging for New Orleans and Kansas City is the fact that rod underdogs have gone a blistering 93-77-6 (54.7%).

NFL Conference Round ATS Betting Predictions & Picks

L.A. Rams (14-3) at New Orleans Saints (14-3)

  • When: Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 3:05 PM ET
  • Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
  • TV: FOX
  • Live Stream: NFL Live
  • NFL Conference Round Odds: New Orleans -3 / Total: 57

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams (14-3 SU, 8-8-1 ATS, 9-8 O/U) got past Dallas 30-22 this past Saturday to narrowly cover the spread as a 7.5-point home favorite as the late-season addition of veteran running back C.J. Anderson paid big dividends once again for L.A. Anderson rushed for a team-high 123 yards and two touchdowns while franchise running back Todd Gurley added 115 rushing yards and one score in the win.

“It’s scary,” Anderson said of joining superstar franchise back Todd Gurley in L.A.’s backfield. “We’ve got two different styles, and we can keep teams off balance. … Playing on the field with Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott, I’m just trying to make my statement and make my stamp in this game, too.”

The Rams average 32.9 points per game to rank second in scoring while allowing 24.0 points per game defensively (20th). Anderson commented on the Ram’s newfound duo in the backfield. The Rams have gone 4-4 ATS in eight road dates this season.

  • Rams are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Rams are 21-45 ATS in their last 66 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
  • Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
  • Rams are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
  • Rams are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Rams are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints (14-3 SU, 10-7 ATS, 7-10 O/U) used a stupendous defensive effort to come back from a 14-point first quarter deficit to dispatch the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles 20-14 in their NFC divisional round matchup last weekend. Philly had absolutely no answer for Pro Bowl wide receiver Michael Thomas who caught 12 passes for 171 yards and one score. Drew Brees completed 28 of 38 passes for 301 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

“What you saw from him today is what I see every day in practice,” Brees said of Thomas. “He’s a big-time player who wants to be the guy to make plays.”

The Saints average 30.8 points per game to rank a stellar third in scoring while allowing 22.1 points per game defensively (14th). New Orleans has won seven of nine at home this season while going 4-5 ATS in the dome!

  • Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
  • Saints are 48-23-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
  • Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
  • Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.

Prediction

Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams might look enticing as a field goal road dog in this contest, seeing as how they want revenge and put up arguably their best defensive performance of the season last weekend. However, I’m going to advise you not to chase fool’s gold and make the simple pick to back Drew Brees and company at home. New Orleans is playing fantastic defense and the more I watch Jared Goff, the more I realize he’s just an okay quarterback that is the byproduct of Sean McVay’s genius offensive system. The Saints have gone a seriously consistent  25-7 ATS in their last 32 home games against a team with a winning road record. New Orleans will win and narrowly cover the chalk in this one!

NFC Championshuip Pick: Saints 34 Rams 28

New England Patriots (12-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

  • When: Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 6:40 PM ET
  • Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
  • TV: CBS
  • Live Stream: NFL Live
  • NFL Conference Round Odds: Kansas City -3 / Total: 57.5

New England Patriots

The Patriots (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS, 6-11 O/U) completely dominated Philip Rivers and the Los Angeles Chargers in their surprising 41-28 win in their AFC divisional matchup last weekend. While Tom Brady had a modest game with just one TD pass, rookie running back Sony Michel led the way to victory by rushing for 129 yards and three touchdowns. Now the Patriots are looking to beat Kansas City again after taking down the Chiefs 43-40 at home in Week 6 as a 3.5-point home fave.

“It’s going to be a good game,” Brady said of the rematch with the Chiefs. “They’re a good team. We played them earlier this year. I know everybody thinks we suck and, you know, we can’t win any games, so we’ll see. It’ll be fun.”

New England averages 27.2 points per game to rank fourth in scoring while limiting the opposition to just 20.3 points per contest defensively to rank seventh overall.

  • Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in January.
  • Patriots are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games.
  • Patriots are 19-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Patriots are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 road games.
  • Patriots are 2-5 ATS against Kansas City
  • Patriots are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Conference Championships games.
  • Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs (13-4 SU, 10-6-1 ATS, 1-6-1 O/U) used a fantastic defensive effort to shut down Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts en route to an emphatic 31-13 win in the AFC division round last weekend. Patrick Mahomes passed for 278 yards and rushed for one touchdown while running back Damien Williams added 129 rushing yards and another score. Kansas City’s defense limited Luck to just 203 passing yards while holding running back Marlon Mack to 46 yards on nine carries.

“We’re such a different team,” said Mahomes. “We have such young players. We have such confidence we’re going to win every single game.”

The Chiefs average a league-leading 35.3 points per game this season and have won eight of their nine home dates this season.

  • Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
  • Chiefs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
  • Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against New England.
  • Chiefs are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games on grass.
  • Chiefs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • Chiefs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Chiefs are 1-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Prediction

Despite their huge win last weekend, I still don’t trust New England this season as much as I have in the past. Having said that, I genuinely believe the Kansas City Chiefs are the easy pick to get past the Pats and reach Super Bowl 53. New England is just 2-7 ATS in their last nine conference championship games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games on grass.

More importantly, Kansas City has won eight of nine at home while going 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games against their AFC counterparts and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against New England. The Chiefs are just too explosive for New England to stop and now, they’ve got the better quarterback in this pairing!

AFC Championship Pick: Chiefs 34 Patriots 27