Most of us are already gearing up for the 2019-2020 NFL Regular Season. One of the top prop wagers every NFL Season is on the league’s most valuable player. Right now, reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes is a favorite to make it back-to-back trophies. Check out an analysis of Mahomes’ chances of winning the NFL MVP again as well as other thoughts in the 2019 NFL MVP odds!
2019 NFL MVP Odds, Predictions & Picks
- Patrick Mahomes +400
- Drew Brees +700
- Aaron Rodgers +800
- Andrew Luck +800
- Tom Brady +1000
- Baker Mayfield +1400
- Russell Wilson +1600
- Carson Wentz +1600
- Philip Rivers +2200
- Deshaun Watson +2500
- Matt Ryan +2800
- Jared Goff +3300
- Alvin Kamara +3300
- Todd Gurley +4000
- Ben Roethlisberger +4000
- Cam Newton +4000
- Aaron Donald +4000
Does Patrick Mahomes offer overlay or underlay odds to win back-to-back NFL MVPs?
Mahomes was unstoppable last season after throwing for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns. He only tossed 12 interceptions. Almost as important? He was breathtaking in the playoffs, torching the Indianapolis Colts when completing 65.9% of his passes and throwing 3 TD passes against the New England Patriots.
The NFL MVP also has wheels. He rushed for 272 yards and 2 touchdowns. His per rush average was 4.5. His ability to rush with the football led him to be even more accurate with is passes. Because linebackers and defensive backs must respect his rushing ability, more often than not, Mahomes waited for the defense to move up while on the run, and completed huge throws downfield.
No doubt, he’s the most talented quarterback in the league. However, that doesn’t mean he wins back-to-back NFL MVPs. One thing about NFL defensive coordinators, they can switch things up. It means they’ll be ready for Mahomes this season. At +400, he’s an underlay to repeat as NFL MVP.
Which player among Brees, Luck, Rodgers, and Brady has the best shot of winning MVP?
Drew Brees often deserves the award every season, but the New Orleans Saints are likely to lean heavily on the rushing attack in 2019. Reason? They want to save Brees and his 40-year-old arm for the playoffs.
It’s hard to see MVP voters handing out another piece of hardware to Tom Brady. He’d have to eclipse Mahomes’s stats from last season to have any shot at the trophy. Like Brady, MVP voters might not want to give it to Rodgers. Not only that, Aaron must play in a new system, Matt LaFleur’s.
LaFleur’s system appears to revolve around quarterbacks. A deeper dive reveals that it’s all about talented running backs. Rodgers will have his opportunities. He won’t have as many as Andrew Luck, though.
Don’t forget about Andrew Luck. Last season was his first after taking an entire season off from football. Luck completed 64.3% of his passes, threw for 4,593 yards, and tossed 39 TD passes. He also threw 15 interceptions, but what did we expect after a season of non-football contact? Luck should throw for big time NFL MVP stats in 2019.
Which two quarterbacks on the list outside of the Top 5 can take NFL MVP?
Both Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson could post fat stats. Wentz must only stay healthy to get into the NFL MVP conversation. He’s still one of the top quarterbacks in the league. He’s also got a great group of wide receivers and he’s got a top running back (finally!) to lean on in Jordan Howard.
Watson used much of last season to get over an injury that ended his rookie season. He still posted a 103.1 QB rating. He’ll play better this season. Watson offers excellent odds and if the favorites stumble, he could be in line for the award.
What non-quarterback player has the best chance at winning the NFL MVP?
Todd Gurley remains one of the top players in the NFL at any position. The Rams’ running back showed serious signs of fatigue late last season, though. That’s why Sean McVeigh drafted Darrell Henderson. McVeigh wants a fresh Todd Gurley for the playoffs.
While McVeigh figures to temper Gurley’s role, Sean Payton should increase Alvin Kamara’s role in New Orleans. Mark Ingram is now part of the Baltimore Ravens. The Saints are deep at running back and they will always use more than just Kamara, but Ingram was another RB1. Now, nobody behind Alvin can be considered an RB1.
If you’re looking for a non-quarterback to win the NFL MVP, Alvin Kamara is your man. Kamara should get 20 to 30 touches a game. So, consider him a top fantasy player as well.