Can Matthew Stafford and the underachieving Detroit Lions get the big upset over Ezekiel Elliott and a visiting Dallas Cowboys team intent of making the playoffs in Week 11? Will Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts hold down the fort at home against Nick Foles and the Jacksonville Jaguars when they meet in their Week 11 AFC South division rivalry?
Last but not least, will the Washington Redskins manage to take care of business when Sam Darnold and the rebuilding New York Jets visit the nation’s capitol? With the start of the 2019 NFL regular season quickly approaching, it’s time to take a look at the must-bet games on the Week 11 docket.
2019 NFL Week 11 Must-Bet Games
Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions
- When: Sunday, November 14, 2019 at 1:00 PM ET
- Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
- TV: FOX
- NFL Week 11 Odds: Dallas -2.5
Dallas is looking to take another step forward in 2019 after going 10-6 last season to win the NFC East and then, squeaking past Seattle in the wild card round before succumbing to the Rams in the divisional round. The Cowboys have a very good quarterback in Dak Prescott and two elite stars in running back Ezekiel Elliott and wide receiver Amari Cooper, not to mention a lock-down defense that finished a stellar sixth in points allowed (20.2 ppg) a year ago.
Unfortunately, the same definitely can’t be said for a Detroit squad that is hoping to improve on their uninspiring 6-10 campaign in Year 1 of the Matt Patricia era in 2018. The Lions have a good, but certainly not great, quarterback in veteran Matt Stafford, but they were mostly inept on the offensive side of the ball in finishing in the bottom third of every meaningful statistical category including scoring (20.2 ppg). Detroit also finished 16t in points allowed, so there’s plenty of work to be done on both sides of the ball in the Motor City.
For this Week 11 clash of NFC playoff hopefuls, I’m surprised the Cowboys aren’t bigger favorites despite being on the road. Detroit went an uninspiring 3-5 ATS at home last season and they’re a bit inferior to the ‘Boys on both sides of the ball.
Pick: Dallas -2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
- When: Sunday, November 14, 2019 at 1:00 PM ET
- Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
- TV: CBS
- NFL Week 11 Odds: Indianapolis -6.5
Jacksonville may have recorded a discouraging 5-11 record in 2018, but there’s plenty of hope the Jags can get back into the playoff mix after reaching the AFC title tilt in 2017. The Jaguars still have an elite defense that finished the 2018 campaign ranked fifth overall and fifth in points allowed (19.8 ppg). The main thing keeping Jacksonville from having any chance at success was the absolutely abysmal play of former quarterback Blake Bortles, whom the team should have gotten rid of years ago if you ask me. Now, with Super Bowl-winning former Philadelphia Eagles signal-caller Nick Foles under center, I’m thinking the Jags could surprise in a big way in 2019.
The Colts took off in Year 1 of the Frank Reich era last season. Veteran quarterback Andrew Luck came back from missing the entire 2017 campaign with an MVP-caliber campaign that saw the top pick in the 2012 draft flourish under the offensive-minded creativity of Reich. Not only did the Colts put up a fantastic 27.1 points per game to finish fifth in scoring, but Indy’s defense surpassed all expectations to finish a solid 10th in points allowed (21.5 ppg).
For this Week 11 AFC South divisional battle, I’m going with the Colts t get the win, mostly because they’re playing at home. However, when it comes to cover the nearly touchdown spread, I like the Jags and the 6.5 points in this one. These rivals split their two regular season meetings a year ago with both teams winning at home by six points or less and I believe you can expect nearly identical outcomes when these two playoff hopefuls meet again in 2019. Indy wins, but Jacksonville covers!
Pick: Jacksonville +6.5
NY Jets at Washington Redskins
- When: Sunday, November 14, 2019 at 1:00 PM ET
- Where: FedEx Field, Landover, MD
- TV: CBS
- NFL Week 11 Odds: Washington -2.5
After going a pitiful 4-12 last season, the Jets have turned to former Dolphins head coach Adam Gase in order to help young quarterback Sam Darnold reach his full potential as they transition into another new era in 2019. Unfortunately, the Jets might have forgotten that Gase is pretty awful in the personnel department and he’s already probably pissed off Pro Bowl running back Le’Veon Bell with some foolish comments before he’s ever suited up for the Jets, so there’s that as well, not to mention the fact that Gase is going to be severely challenged in trying to help improve a defense that finished a dismal 29th in points allowed last season (27.6 ppg).
In Washington, the Commanders are baking on talented first round draft pick Dwayne Haskins to become their franchise quarterback of the future at some point soon, but even if he doesn’t start from Day 1, the Skins have two smart veteran quarterbacks that can at least hold down the fort for a while in Case Keenum and Colt McCoy. While the Skins need to improve an offense that floundered without Alex Smith under center last season, Washington did finish a respectable 15th in points allowed (22.4 ppg) and they’ll be highly motivated after closing out the 2018 campaign on a three-game losing streak.
For this Week 11 matchup, Washington is the pick to hold it down at home and cover the chalk as a manageable 2.5-point home favorite. The Jets went 3-5 ATS on the road a year ago while the Redskins went 4-4 ATS on their home field. This looks like a game the Skins should win and I believe they will, even if it’s by a field goal!
Pick: Washington -2.5
