The NFL Season is almost here. Although right now NFL bettors are concentrating on futures and regular season win totals, we must prepare for the actual season. A good way is to consider betting stats from 2018 and then predict how things could change in 2019. Check out last season’s NFL betting stats for the Top 5 AFC Super Bowl favorites as well as betting stat predictions for the upcoming NFL Regular Season.
Top 5 AFC Super Bowl Favorites Betting Stats
New England Patriots
- Super Bowl LIV Odds: +600
The Patriots went 9-7 ATS last season. That’s not the most interesting betting stat. The real interesting betting stat is how the over went 5-11 in Patriot games. New England faced high totals all season long.
Will that continue this season? It’s likely to. Although future hall of fame tight-end Rob Gronkowski retired, Tom Brady has plenty of weapons surrounding him. The real key will be whether he has enough left at the age of 40 to take advantage of those weapons.
Use your own judgement in regards to the total. Some games could go over, but the Pats play in the AFC East. Only the Jets appear to have an offense that can stick with New England. Also, because the Patriots are co-favorites to win the Super Bowl, they should be overvalued ATS in plenty of games.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Super Bowl LIV Odds: +600
Kansas City sort of snuck up on teams last year. This was especially true early where the Chiefs went a blistering 7-0 ATS, and 8-2-1 against the spread in their first 11 games. After Week 11 it was a different story. KC went 1-4 ATS to finish the regular season. In the playoffs, they went 1-1 ATS.
The over went 10-5-1 last season. Chiefs’ games should go over this season as well. One caveat, though. Odds makers will be more dialed in to Kansas City totals. Expect a more reverse to the mean, possibly 8-8 over/under the total in Chiefs’ games.
As far as the spread is concerned, NFL defensive coordinators should have a better idea of how to defend against Patrick Mahomes. We saw that towards the end of the regular season last year. Expect KC to be over played, like the Patriots, in most of their games.
Cleveland Browns
- Super Bowl LIV Odds: +1200
Cleveland went 10-6 against the spread in 2018. Over the total went 7-8-1. Massive buzz surrounds Cleveland this season. The Browns are favored to win the AFC North over Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Baker Mayfield has a real weapon in Odell Beckham Jr. There’s a lot to like about the team.
When a team gets a ton of buzz, they end up becoming underlays against the spread. Don’t expect the Browns to cover in 2019 the way they did in 2018. Cleveland could even have a losing record ATS and still make the playoffs. Odds makers knew what totals to set on Cleveland games last season, the total went 8-8. They’ll know what totals to set on Browns’ games this season.
Indianapolis Colts
- Super Bowl LIV Odds: +1200
Indianapolis is getting plenty of buzz as well. The Colts went 8-7-1 ATS in 2018. Indianapolis has a much tougher schedule in 2019. It’s important to individually handicap each Colts’ game.
Andrew Luck’s squad figures to go around 8-8 against the spread. The total shouldn’t divert too far from the 8-8 last year. Most games, Indianapolis will present fair odds. We must strike, bet on the Colts, the few times they’re an overlay.
L.A. Chargers
- Super Bowl LIV Odds: +1500
In 2018, the Chargers went 9-7 ATS. The total went 8-8. LAC should produce similar betting stats this season. The Chargers will have a good offense whether running back Melvin Gordon plays or not.
Gordon is a good player. He’s not the most important player on the Bolts’ offense. That’s quarterback Philip Rivers. Not only that, but the Chargers are strong at the WR position. Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson should fill in adequately for Gordon. Don’t expect 10-6 against the spread, but because LAC will fly under the radar, do expect another 9-7 ATS season.
