AFC Championship Betting Total & Game Preview

Posted by Eric Williams on January 22, 2016 in

The New England Patriots have a high-scoring offense. The Denver Broncos have the league’s best defense. Clearly, something’s gotta’ give as far as the game’s Over/Under total when the two Super Bowl 50 hopefuls square off in their AFC Championship showdown. Now, let’s find out what the best Total wager is or this highly-anticipated pairing.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos AFC Championship Game

When: Sunday, January 24, 2016
Kickoff: 3:05 PM ET
Where: Denver, CO
Stadium: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Spread: Patriots -3
Moneyline: New England -163 vs Denver +143
Game Total: 44.5
Watch: CBS
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: New England vs Denver

Why Bet the Over

The Over looks like a great wager for one simple reason…the Patriots have been an excellent pick to play Over their game totals this season. The Patriots (10-7 O/U) played over the total in their AFC divisional round win over Kansas City last weekend and have played Over the total in three of their last four games and five of their last seven overall.

The Over is also 4-0 in the Patriots’ last four playoff games and 11-4 in their last 15 games in the month of January. The Over is also a consistent 39-18 in New England’s last 57 games against a team with a winning record and 57-27 in their last 84 games against their AFC rivals. Last but not least, the Over is also 34-15 in Denver’s last 49 games against a team with a winning record.

Manning vs Brady is the match up everyone will be focused on in the AFC Championship game.

Why Bet the Under

The under looks like a great pick because the Broncos have a shutdown defense and have consistently played Under their respective game totals this season.

The Under is a near-perfect 5-1 in Denver’s last six home games against a team with a winning road record and 4-1 in their last five playoff games. The Under is also 4-1 in Denver’s last five games in the month of January and a consistent 7-2-1 in their last 10 home games.

Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction

64 percent of the betting public likes the Over and I say that’s the right call, but just barely. The Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the Broncos and Patriots and 8-3 in their last 11 meetings in the Mile High City.

I think Denver will have to score at least 24 points in order to take out a Patriots team that should be able to reach the 21-point plateau, even against Denver’s elite defense. I’m going with a final score of Denver 24 and New England 21 to play just over the game’s 44.5-point O/U total.