Tennessee at Arizona NFL Odds & Expert Pick for Week 14FM 104.5 (Tennessee) / Sports 620 KTAR (Arizona) Stream Option: NFL Live Opening NFL Odds: Titans -3 (44)
Last MeetingIn Week 7 of the 2013 season, the Titans lost at home to the 49ers 31-17. Colin Kaepernick threw for 199 yards and ran for 68 and a touchdown. Frank Gore also ran for a pair of 1-yard TDs. Kaepernick is out of the NFL now and Gore is with the Colts. Tramaine Brock also intercepted a pass, Justin Smith had two of the 49ers’ three sacks and Kassim Osgood recovered a muffed punt for a TD. Jake Locker was the Titans’ QB that day and he’s out of the NFL. So, I wouldn’t take too much from that result.
Why Bet on Tennessee?The Titans have excelled in this spot for bettors of late, going 6-3 ATS in their last nine non-conference games and 2-1 ATS in their last three as a road favorite of three points or less. Conversely, this is a spot in which Arizona has struggled, going just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog and only 4-14 ATS in its last 18 against teams with winning records. Although University of Phoenix Stadium has been open since 2006, the Titans have never played a game there in franchise history. Tennessee won for the sixth time in seven games last week, 24-13 over Houston. LeShaun Sims intercepted a pass intended for DeAndre Hopkins in the end zone with 1:02 left. Derrick Henry ran 75 yards up the left sideline for a TD three plays later to seal the win. Henry finished with 109 yards rushing. Marcus Mariota completed 15-of-23 passes for 150 yards and a touchdown. He added three carries for 23 yards and a rushing TD. It was more of the same from Mariota, who was held under 200 yards for the second straight week. Mariota’s passing touchdown was a 24-yard strike to Delanie Walker late in the third quarter. The last time Mariota stepped foot inside University of Phoenix Stadium, he was a redshirt freshman at the University of Oregon. It was in the 2013 Fiesta Bowl. Mariota has enjoyed great success in previous games vs. NFC opponents. In eight career games vs. the NFC, Mariota has thrown 20 touchdowns vs three interceptions for a 119.0 rating. He’ll be aiming for his fifth game in a row vs. the NFC with two touchdown passes and a 100-rating on Sunday. Top receiver Rishard Matthews (hamstring) said there’s a “high chance” of him returning for Week 14. Matthews got in a limited practice on Wednesday and should be back this week after missing the past two games with a hamstring injury.
Why Bet on Arizona?The Arizona Cardinals tend to dominate AFC teams at home. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, Arizona has gone 8-1 at home against AFC teams, with the only loss coming last season when the Patriots beat them 23-21. But the Cards are just 3-8-1 ATS on the year overall, which is tied for the third worst mark in the NFL. Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald had 10 catches for 98 yards and a touchdown in the Cardinals’ loss against the Los Angeles Rams last week. He has 1,207 career catches and became the third player in NFL history to reach 1,200 receptions, joining Jerry Rice (1,549) and Tony Gonzalez (1,325). Fitzgerald, who played in his 214th career game, is the fastest player in NFL history to reach the milestone (Rice, 221 games and Gonzalez, 247). Fitzgerald has 82 receptions this season, his 10th career season with at least 75 catches. Only Rice (13) has more such seasons in NFL history. Fitzgerald has 15,267 career receiving yards and surpassed Isaac Bruce (15,208) to move into fourth place on the NFL’s all-time receiving yards list. Will Arizona have running back Adrian Peterson this week? He missed the Rams game. Peterson missed his fourth straight day of practice Wednesday. Coach Bruce Arians didn’t have any more information about Peterson’s injury other than it’s a neck injury. Arians said Peterson just needs time to heal. Left tackle Jared Veldheer missed practice Wednesday with an elbow injury. He’s listed as day-to-day, coach Bruce Arians said. If Veldheer can’t play Sunday, Will Holden will replace him at left tackle. The Cardinals are ranked 13th in the NFL on defense, which has one of the best cornerbacks in the league in Patrick Peterson. The Cardinals also have a productive pass rusher in linebacker Chandler Jones, who ranks 2nd in the NFL with 13 sacks. Peterson is the only cornerback with more than 400 snaps to only be targeted less than 50 times this season, according to Pro Football Focus. He has been targeted 43 times.
Latest NFL Odds Trends
- Tennessee is 2-3-1 ATS in the last 6 games
- Tennessee is 6-1 SU in the last 7 games
- The total went OVER in 4 of Tennessee’s last 6 games when playing Arizona
- Arizona is 3-8-1 ATS in the last 12 games
- Arizona is 2-4 SU in the last 6 games
- The total went UNDER in 12 of Arizona’s last 18 games at home