Remember that old saying…why out off until tomorrow what you can do today? Whether you know that age-old axiom or not, pro football bettors across the globe will find out that old maxim is perfectly suited for the quartet of Week 1 NFL Odds free picks that you’re about to receive. Okay, let’s get started.
NFL Week 1 Expert Betting Picks
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) May 25, 2016
Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 48) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Analysis: The Jacksonville Jaguars closed out the 2015 season playing some of the best football anyone has seen out of the beleaguered franchise in ages. Having said that, let me also say that the rebuilding (still) Jags are going t open their 2016 campaign with an emphatic loss against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
Green Bay won 10 games in 2015 and won one playoff game, but the Packers were largely left with a feeling of underachieving after losing their NFC North division crown to Minnesota and never really challenging for a Super Bowl appearance after reaching the NFC title tilt one year earlier. The Packers are the much better offensive team and have arguably the game’s best quarterback in Rodgers, not to mention a huge coaching edge.
While quarterback Blake Bortles has led Jacksonville to a respectable 5-5 SU and ATS mark in its L/10 home games, the Packers have gone 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. Green Bay almost certainly realizes they can not afford to throw away games against opponents they are supposed to beat. The Packers get the win and ATS cover.
The Pick: Green Bay 28 Jacksonville 21
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 45.5)
Analysis: The Miami Dolphins (6-10) may have landed the steal of the 2016 NFL Draft in tackle Laremy Tunsil and they may have an innovative offensive mind in new head coach Adam Gase, but until I see mediocre quarterback Ryan Tannehill improve his pedestrian passing, there is no way I have much belief in the Fins heading into 2016. Having said that, let me also say that the Seattle Seahawks are going to enter the 2016 regular season with a ton of motivation after losing their NFC West division title to Arizona ad getting knocked out of the postseason early.
Not only are the Seahawks playing at home in this opener, but Russell Wilson and company are facing a Dolphins team that is just 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games. Seattle is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite and should beat Miami by 10 points in this mismatch of an opener!
The Pick: Seattle 31 Miami 21
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5, 49.5)
Analysis: The Indianapolis Colts and quarterback Andrew Luck will look to get their 2016 campaign off on a positive note when they host the Detroit Lions in their 2016 NFL regular season opener. Indianapolis is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four home games and will be bolstered by the return of Luck after Indy’s franchise signal-caller missed seven games last season. The Colts added center Ryan Kelly with the 16th pick in the draft to upgrade their offensive line and keep Luck upright and healthy while Detroit nabbed tackle Taylor Decker with the 16th pick in the draft.
The Lions won a modest seven games a year ago and have won just three of their last 10 road games, but Mathew Stafford and company closed out the 2015 season with three straight victories, so I expect them to put up a real fight against the Colts. With the Over going 3-2 in both teams’ last five games, I believe the Over is the best pick for this opener.
The Pick: Over 49.5 Total Points
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (PK, 51)
Analysis: If New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady misses this game as part of his four-game suspension, then the Arizona Cardinals will get the easy win and ATS cover as a home Pick ‘Em. However if Brady does suit up, I say the Cardinals still get the win, though it will be a lot closer. The Patriots are a modest 6-4 SU, but just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 road games. More importantly, Arizona has gone 7-3 SU in its last 10 home games. The Cardinals are also 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four home games as a pick ‘em
Arizona fell short of their stated quest to reach Super Bowl 50 a year ago, but have the kind of talent and head coach that makes them one of the top favorites to do so again this coming season. With an offense that ranked first and a defense that ranked third a year ago, I say the Arizona Cardinals are the easy pick in this one!
The Pick: Arizona 27 New England 20