Best NFL Betting Strategy for Longshots

Best NFL Betting Strategy for Longshots

On Sep. 9, the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers throw down to open what promises to be another terrific season of NFL action. In the National Football League, upsets happen all the time. Check out a proven strategy to find the top underdog plays every week this season so you can plan your bets against the NFL odds.

NFL Optimal Strategy for Betting Longshots

2021 NFL Season

  • When: Sep. 9, 2021 – Jan. 9, 2022

Look for home team underdogs to back on the moneyline

In the NFL, home teams have a huge advantage over road teams. For some reason, teams playing on their turf step it up while road squads tend to not play as well.

In Week 1, the Houston Texans are a +130 home dog versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags look like the better team, but Jacksonville will start a rookie quarterback. Not only that, the Jaguars’ coach is also a rookie.

Washington is a +105 moneyline home dog versus the Los Angeles Chargers. Most agree the WFT’s defense is one of the best in the league this season.

The Bengals are +155 moneyline dogs versus the Minnesota Vikings. On paper, Minnesota is the much better team. But the Vikings went 0-3 during the preseason and quarterback Kirk Cousins refuses to get the vaccine.

Look for home underdog moneyline opportunities. It takes handicapping to find the best plays, but if you pick and choose, you will score decent profit. 

Don’t listen to hype on favorites

NFL analysts love to overhype chalk. Three games in Week 1 stand out. Josh Allen is an NFL MVP favorite and the Bills’ offense looks awesome, but is Buffalo really a -6 ½ favorite over Big Ben Roethlisberger, Mike Tomlin, and the Pittsburgh Steelers?

The Green Bay Packers are a -3 chalk versus the New Orleans Saints. If the Saints get the Superdome together for the game, are the Packers worth backing at -3 to beat the Saints even though Jameis Winston looks like he’ll return to his best form and, the Saints are in the Dome?

Then there’s the hyped to the moon Los Angeles Rams who will offer the Chicago Bears -7 ½ even though the Bears made the playoffs last season and start a better quarterback in 2021 than they did in 2020.

In Week 1, the Saints, Bears, and Steelers are possible plays against the spread. 

Look for underdogs with an offensive line, rushing attack, and / or quarterback edge

The Miami Dolphins are +3 underdogs on the road versus the New England Patriots. It’s looking like the Pats will start rookie quarterback Mac Jones. 

Miami’s quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, beat Jones for the starter’s nod at Alabama. The Dolphins averaged over 105 rushing yards per last season. The offensive line should be better in 2021.

Handicap further, but Miami looks like a great underdog play ATS and possibly SU. 

Set your own spread lines on each NFL game

For every race they wish to bet, professional horseplayers set their personal betting line on every horse. When handicapping football games, you should also set a line.

If you truly believe the Steelers lose to the Bills by 9 points, Buffalo is the play. If you think Dak Prescott returns one-hundred percent and helps the Cowboys keep their game versus Tampa Bay to a 6 point or less loss, the Boys are the play. 

After handicapping, set your personal spread line for every NFL game. Favorites you thought were obvious will become plays against. Underdogs you thought had no shot will jump out at you. 


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