With the 2020 NFL regular season quickly approaching, now is a great time to dig deep into the question of which ‘bad’ teams could turn out to be good bets this coming campaign. You see, when it comes to betting on NFL football, each and every year, there are a handful of teams that post losing or .500 records at best, that actually turn a profit by covering the chalk more often than not. To get started, let’s take a look back at the teams that were ‘bad’ last season, but still managed to cash in at a high rate for their betting backers so you can make your bets for the upcoming season against their NFL odds.
NFL Betting Analysis – Which ‘Bad’ Teams Could Turn Out To Be Good Bets in 2020?
Arizona (5-10-1 SU, 9-5-2 ATS)
Led by rookie quarterback Kyler Murray and first-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona won just five games, but they finished sixth in the ATS standings by competing hard and staying in almost every game they played.
Miami (5-11 SU, 9-7 ATS)
The Dolphins were a team in transition a year ago as they purged their roster in the hopes of getting a bunch of draft picks to rebuild in 2020 and beyond. Still, the Fins finished ninth in the ATS standings by going all-out for head coach Brian Flores and finishing off their 2019 campaign with a pair of wins and three victories in their final five games.
Denver (7-9 SU, 9-7 ATS)
The Broncos finished with a losing record last season, but they also finished an encouraging 11th in the ATS standings by winning two straight and four of their final five games after inserting Drew Lock into the starting quarterback spot.
Indianapolis (7-9 SU, 7-7-2 ATS)
The Colts finished with a losing record a year ago, but managed to go 7-7-2 ATS to finish 16th in the ATS standings.
Atlanta (7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS) and Las Vegas (7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS)
The Falcons and Raiders went an identical 7-9 a year ago, but both teams finished at a respectable 8-8 in the ATS standings.
2020 Outlook
Miami Dolphins
The Fins might open the 2020 season with veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick under center while prized rookie Tua Tagovailoa sits and watches early on, but after making a ton of additions in the draft and via free agency, things are looking up in South Beach! While I’m not expecting the Dolphins to surpass either, New England or Buffalo for supremacy in the AFC East, I am expecting the Fins to approach eight victories at the very least. More importantly, I expect Miami to give themselves a chance in almost every game they play in 2020 and that will be more than good enough for them to post a winning ATS mark this coming season.
Washington (3-13 SU, 6-10 ATS)
Formerly known as the Redskins, Washington floundered in winning just three games last season before firing head coach Jay Gruden and finishing out the season under interim head coach Bill Callahan. Now, however, I believe Washington will be a lot more formidable in 2020 after hiring no-nonsense former Carolina Panthers head coach Ron Rivera to lead their franchise in a new direction. Washington drafted defensive end Chase Young and he will be an immediate impact player that helps improve a unit that will already be better under Rivera’s guidance. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins should be better in what should be his first full season as a starter and even if he doesn’t win the job, Rivera can always turn to veteran Alex Smith, knowing that he will at least not lose them any games with foolish turnovers. I’m not expecting Washington to leap-frog either Philly or Dallas in the NFC East, but they could approach eight wins and I believe they’ll post a winning ATS record while doing so.
Carolina (5-11 SU, 6-9-1 ATS)
The Panthers won a meager five games last season and parted ways with longtime head coach Ron Rivera in favor of former Baylor head coach Matt Rhule. Carolina then signed veteran quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a long-term deal while adding a bunch of additional talent via the draft and free agency. Now, while I’m not expecting the Panthers to challenge either New Orleans or Tampa Bay for supremacy in the NFC South, I do believe the Panthers will record more than five wins in 2020 while finishing with a winning ATS record.
Cleveland (6-10 SU, 5-10-1 ATS)
Sure, Cleveland flounder miserable and never came close to living up to their preseason playoff hopes by going 5-10-1 last season, but the Browns actually made a really good hire in naming former Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski as their new head coach and I believe Cleveland will be better off in 2020 because of it. While I’m definitely not expecting the Browns to challenge Baltimore for supremacy in the AFC North and I believe they will finish behind a Steelers team that has Ben Roethlisberger back under center, I’m expecting Cleveland to finish right around .500 while recording a winning ATS record.
LA Chargers (5-11 SU, 4-9-3 ATS)
The Bolts went an uninspiring 5-11 last season, but L.A. is still a team with tons of talent and they’ll open the season with a quarterback that just doesn’t turn it over in veteran Tyrod Taylor before eventually turning the reins over to first round draft pick Justin Herbert. No, the Chargers won’t challenge Kansas City for the AFC West division title, but a .500 finish isn’t unrealistic and with Taylor playing it ‘safe’ more often than not, I expect the Bolts to be in a lot of games until the very end this coming season.
