Ratings for Thursday night NFL games are down this season. Part of the reason why? Somewhat less than interesting matchups. That looks to be the case again this week when Buffalo visits the AFC East rival Jets in the final meeting between the two. The Bills are field-goal favorites on the NFL spread.
How to Bet Bills at Jets Week 9 NFL Spread, Analysis & Pick for TNF
— Buffalo Bills (@buffalobills) October 31, 2017
When: Thursday, 8:25 PM ET
Where: MetLife Stadium
TV: NFL Network
Radio: WCMF 96.5 FM (Bills) / ESPN New York 98.7 FM (Jets)
Stream Option: NFL Live
Opening NFL Spread: Bills -3 (42.5)
- Partly Cloudy: 18°C/64°F
- Humidity: 86%
- Precipitation: 7%
- Wind: 6 mph S
- Cloud Cover: 33%
- Type of Stadium: Open
The Bills were swept by the Jets last year but beat New York in Week 1 this season, 21-12. Tyrod Taylor threw for two scores. The Bills never trailed after opening the scoring on Taylor’s 1-yard touchdown pass to Charles Clay 3 1/2 minutes into the second quarter. Andre Holmes also scored on a 1-yard catch and Mike Tolbert scored on a 1-yard run. Buffalo’s defense had three interceptions, including linebacker Ramon Humber picking off Josh McCown’s pass to thwart a 2-point conversion in the third quarter. Safety Micah Hyde sealed the victory by intercepting McCown at Buffalo’s 41 to end the Jets’ final series.
- Total Meetings: 114
- First Meeting: September 11th, 1960. Polo Grounds. New York, NY
- Last Meeting: September 10th, 2017. New Era Field. Orchard Park, New York
- All-Time Series: Buffalo Bills 61-53-0
- Largest Margin of Victory: NY Jets 42-3
- Longest Win Streak: Buffalo 10 (1987-1992)
- Current Win Streak: Buffalo 1 (2017)
Why Bet On Buffalo?
Buffalo (5-2) is only a half-game behind New England in the AFC East. Bills coach Sean McDermott on Monday said he is “extremely proud” of his team but added, “nobody gives out awards for 5-2.”
On Sunday, the Bills beat the visiting Raiders 34-14. The Bills shut down Derek Carr in the rain, as it took 49 attempts for Carr to sneak over 300 yards. Buffalo ranks third in points allowed per game this season. LeSean McCoy gained 115 of his 151 rushing yards on plays straight up the middle vs. Oakland, averaging 6.8 yards on such carries, and rushed 10 times for 36 yards on all other rushes. He averaged 4.2 yards per rush before contact on all of his rushes, and 5.3 on his tries up the middle.
Taylor completed 20-of-27 passes for 165 yards and a touchdown and rushed six times for a gain of one, including a one-yard score. Taylor found Andre Holmes wide open for a red-zone score and reached over the goal line for his one-yard rushing TD.
While the Bills’ defense is much improved, it is a little dependent upon creating takeaways. Buffalo is forcing turnovers on a league-high 20.5 percent of opposing possessions. McDermott is getting the most out of players such as Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, but it’s tough to see them keeping up that sort of takeaway rate. The leading team in takeaway rate this time last season was the Vikings at 19.0 percent, and they forced takeaways 10.2 percent of the time, which was 23rd in the NFL, over the remainder of the season.
Buffalo has produced 17 turnovers this season. The Bills have only turned the ball over three times, so they’re plus 14 on the year. That’s best in the NFL. Buffalo is 4-0 in Orchard Park for the first time since 1995.
Buffalo tight end Charles Clay (knee) was held out of Monday’s practice. Clay is “making progress,” but it’s looking like he has little shot at returning for Thursday. Clay is the team’s leading receiver.
- Average Score For: 21.86
- Total Yards: 373.57
- Pass Yards: 178.71
- Rush Yards: 124.57
- Average Score Against: 16.43
- Total Yards: 346.86
- Pass Yards: 266.43
- Rush Yards: 80.43
Why Bet On NY Jets?
New York (3-5) lost a third straight Sunday, 25-20 vs. Atlanta in a monsoon. The Jets had several issues while losing their third straight game in which they held a lead in the fourth quarter. Josh McCown had a bad snap exchange and fumbled on another play — but recovered — and Jeremy Kerley had a costly muffed punt. McCown finished 26 of 33 for 257 yards with touchdown passes to Robby Anderson and Eric Tomlinson.
“It’s alarming that we’re losing games and giving up leads,” tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins said. “It pisses me off that we lost those games and I’m sure everyone else is pissed off. Yeah, it’s frustrating. It just sucks. You see flashes and you’re like, ‘Wow.’ We just need to keep those flashes [going].”
At the season’s midpoint, the Jets have been outscored in the fourth quarter, 76-20. The NFL is all about the fourth quarter.
Despite the soggy conditions, the Jets ran for just 43 yards on 22 carries. Matt Forte, who had 7 yards on four attempts, suggested that offensive coordinator John Morton “strayed” from the game plan. Were Forte’s complaints about the play calling legitimate? Let’s look. First-down plays: 14 runs (29 yards), nine passes (74 yards, 1 TD); Second-half plays: 10 runs (20 yards), 17 passes (121 yards, 3 sacks). That includes six passes in the final minute, when they had to throw.
Jets CB Morris Claiborne left Sunday’s Week 8 game with a foot injury. Gang Green is already missing slot CB Buster Skrine due to a concussion. Claiborne was shutting down Julio Jones before exiting Sunday’s game.
- Average Score For: 19.62
- Total Yards: 307.87
- Pass Yards: 212.12
- Rush Yards: 95.75
- Average Score Against: 23.25
- Total Yards: 361.37
- Pass Yards: 233.12
- Rush Yards: 128.25
Latest NFL Spread Trends
- Bills are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 games on the road
- Bills are 4-1 SU in the last 5 games
- The total went OVER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 games
- NY Jets are 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games
- NY Jets are 5-11 SU in its last 16 games
- The total went UNDER in 5 of NY Jets’s last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Expert Prediction & NFL Pick for Week 9
Think I like the under better than the side, but take Buffalo – just don’t give more than 3 in the NFL Spread.