The Tennessee Titans and Buffalo Bills will both be looking to give their playoff hopes a boost when they square off in their Week 5 matchup of AFC of postseason longshots on Sunday. Can the Bills bounce back from their narrow loss against New England to either win outright or cover the chalk as a field goal road dog or are the Titans the pick to take care of business at home? Let’s get to my expert NFL analysis and prediction right now.
Bills vs Titans 2019 NFL Week 5 Spread, Game Preview & Prediction
- When: Sunday, October 6, 2019 at 1:00 PM ET
- Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
- TV: CBS
- Radio: Buffalo / Tennessee
- Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
- NFL Week 5 Odds: Tennessee -3 / Total: 38.5
- Scattered Thunderstorms: 29°C/84°F
- Humidity: 60%
- Precipitation: 50%
- Wind: 9 mph SSW
- Cloud Cover: 68%
- Type of Stadium: Open
Why Bet On Buffalo at +3?
The Bills look like a good pick to at least cover the chalk in this one because they’ve got an elite defense that is ranked fifth in points allowed (15.8 ppg). While Buffalo saw their three-game winning streak come to a halt in their 16-10 Week 4 home loss against New England, they also looked fantastic in holding the Patriots to just three points over the game’s final three quarters. Ageless running back Frank Gore rushed for 109 yards in the loss, but the bad news is that young quarterback Josh Allen looked pretty horrific to me in tossing three interceptions while getting sacked four times before suffering a concussion.
- Average Score For: 22
- Total Yards: 391.33
- Pass Yards: 240
- Rush Yards: 151.33
- Average Score Against: 15.67
- Total Yards: 299.67
- Pass Yards: 211.67
- Rush Yards: 88
Why Bet On Tennessee at -3?
The Titans looked solid in their 24-10 Week 4 road win over Atlanta as Marcus Mariota passed for 227 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions and Derrick Henry added 100 rushing yards in the win. The Titans held Matt Ryan to no touchdown passes and limited the Falcons to a pitiful 58 rushing yards to improve to 2-2 on the season. However, I think Tennessee’s performance should be taken with a grain of salt, seeing as how the one-win Falcons look almost completely inept so far this season.
- Average Score For: 22.33
- Total Yards:
- Pass Yards: 194.67
- Rush Yards: 112.33
- Average Score Against: 17.33
- Total Yards: 308.67
- Pass Yards: 189.67
- Rush Yards: 119
NFL Week 5 Betting Trends for Bills vs Titans
- Bills are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games
- Bills are 4-1 SU in the last 5 games
- The total went UNDER in 6 of Buffalo’s last 7 games
- Titans are 2-4 ATS in the last 6 games
- Titans are 6-3 SU in the last 9 games
- The total went OVER in 4 of Tennessee’s last 5 games at home
Bills vs Titans Expert Analysis and Prediction
Maybe it’s me, but even in defeat last weekend, Buffalo was quite impressive, particularly on defense where they harassed Tom Brady into one of the worst performances in his career. With that said, I’ve got to believe that if the Bills can force Brady into a pitiful performance then they’ll make Marcus Mariota look even worse in this Week 5 matchup.
Mariota and the Titans are an uninspiring 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and a nearly winless 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. On the flip side of the coin, Buffalo has gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up and ATS loss while also going an identical 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
At this point of his career, I don’t have a whole lot of confidence that Marcus Mariota is ever going to come close to achieving the franchise quarterback status that Tennessee hoped he would when they made him the second overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. While Josh Allen could sit this one out, veteran backup Matt Barkley is serviceable, particularly with a defense like the one we’ve seen out of the Bills so far this season. I’m going with Buffalo and the points to cover the chalk in a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Buffalo +3