After a wild week 3, we turn the page and look ahead to what the NFL betting lines hold in Week 4, specifically in regards to OVER and UNDER value NFL picks. Here’s what we’re spotting.
Best NFL Week 4 UNDER Picks
Panthers at Buccaneers, UNDER 40
Last season, this matchup served us with two UNDER totals, as the Buccaneers lost 20-14 at Carolina in Week 1, before Carolina won 19-17 in Tampa. This could probably be overlooked given that Tampa Bay has a better QB, while Cam Newton has been lights out in the first three weeks. But then, there’s just too much history and trends in this series that are hard to ignore. For starters, the UNDER is 7-1 in the last 8 games in the series, and the Last three meetings have totaled just 36, 34 and 33 points. In addition, the UNDER is 10-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 11 games played on grass, and 11-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 13 overall games. With all that being considered, we are leaning on the UNDER trend continuing this Sunday.
Browns at Chargers, UNDER 45
The Chargers (No. 14 offense, No. 23 defense, No. 28 special teams) have been far from a good team this season. The Browns, as you know, have been equally bad, if not worse, especially on the defensive side of things. Logically, the poor defenses should mean an OVER total, particularly because the Browns are 3-0 in the OVER totals this season. However, San Diego’s injury concerns present an entirely different scenario. LG Johnnie Troutman (arm) was put on IR, while LT King Dunlap (concussion), center Chris Watt (groin) and LG Orlando Franklin (ankle) missed practice on Wednesday and big doubts for Sunday’s game. This means that the O-line will be missing some of its key pieces, or play with not-fully healthy players, which is likely to limit the efficiency of Philip Rivers and Co. This unhealthy offense is in fact the big reason the Chargers have laid back-to-back UNDERs in their last two games. Added to Cleveland’s well-known offensive struggles, along with the talks about possible rains before this game kicks off, the matchup looks well set for an ugly low-scoring UNDER affair.
Other Top Value UNDER Picks:
• Jets at Dolphins, UNDER 42
• Texans at Falcons, UNDER 47
• Seahawks at Lions, UNDER 43
Best NFL Week 4 OVER Picks
Raiders at Bears, OVER 44.5
So far this season, Oakland games have had 46, 70 and 47 total points, all OVERs. After timidly squandering several scoring opportunities last week by punting the ball against Seattle’s mean defense, expect Chicago’s Jimmy Clausen/Jay Cutler to adopt a better approach at home, taking advantage of talents like RB Matt Forte (59 rushes, 276 yards TD), TE Martellus Bennett (13 receptions, 118 yards TD), WR Eddie Royal to push for scores against Oakland’s leaky defense. Meanwhile, Derek Carr is looking all grown up, and his offensive connection with his top targets–rookie WR Amari Cooper (20 receptions, 290 yards, TD), WR Michael Crabtree (18 receptions, 184 yards, TD) and RB Latavius Murray (52 rushes, 248 yards 2 TDs)–is looking really good. With both teams evidently being capable of scoring 2-3 TDs against each other for 20-30 points apiece, we love the OVER for profits in this game.
Rams at Cardinals, OVER 43
At some point this season, like against the Lions next week, the Cardinals will find it hard to pile up solid points on the board. But against the Rams team that is allowing 22.3 PPG through the first three games, there’s not much to hope for in terms of containing the Cardinals. I mean, this is an Arizona team that is currently leading the country with 126 points scored through the first three games (averaging at 42 PPG), and the possible return of star running back Andre Ellington means Carson Palmer and his receivers won’t be going it alone. Added to one or two TDs from Nick Foles and his offense, this game is very ripe for OVER 43 points. Oh, and just to drive the point home, here are a few betting trends to consider here: The OVER is 5-0 in Cardinals last five games following an ATS win; The Over is 8-2 in Rams last 10 games in October. The OVER is 6-2 in Rams last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points; The OVER is 4-0 in Arizona’s last four games; and The Over is 18-7-1 in Cardinals last 26 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points.
Giants at Buffalo OVER 46
No RB LeSean McCoy and WR Sammy Watkins for Sunday? No problem. Karlos Williams (110 yards and a touchdown on just 12 carries against Miami), WR Percy Harvin (seven catches on eight targets vs. Miami) and TE Charles Clay (five catches and a touchdown on seven targets vs. Miami) all proved very capable as offensive targets for QB Tyrod Taylor in last Week’s 41-14 win over the Dolphins (which paid total bettors on an OVER). Conversely, the Giants looked unstable on both sides of the ball against Washington in Week 3, but their 32-31 victory importantly allowed for an OVER total. Given the stage to fight their hearts out in Buffalo, our belief is that this fisticuffs will pay on an OVER, as both teams score at least 25 points apiece.
Other Top Value OVER Picks:
• Eagles at Redskins, OVER 43.5
• Cowboys at Saints, OVER 47
• Packers at 49ers, OVER 48
• Bengals at Chiefs, OVER 45
Vikings at Broncos, OVER 42.5
Considering the OVER/UNDER is 1-2 for the Broncos this season, and 0-3 for the Vikings, it looks as if the Vikings-Broncos clash will end in an UNDER (at least on paper). Plus, both teams sport good defensive units, further laying credence to the UNDER narrative. However, on further analysis, you find that since their excusably slow starts in Week 1, both teams have been on ascendancy in the offense. The Vikings are averaging 28.5 PPG scoring in their last two games, while the Broncos are averaging 27.5 PPG scoring in the same span. So even with the expectation that the defensive units will take center stage in this game, we like the total going OVER the manageable 42.5-point total.