Browns at Chargers NFL Spread & Betting Analysis for Week 13

Browns at Chargers NFL Spread & Betting Analysis for Week 13

Written by Jordan Walters on Friday,December 1, 2017 10:15, EDT

No chance the winless Cleveland Browns beat the surging Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, right? The Bolts are the biggest favorites on the NFL Spread board for Week 13. However, the last Cleveland win was against this same team. Let’s find out how the NFL odds could end up for this Sunday matchup.

Browns at Chargers NFL Spread & Betting Analysis for Week 13

When: Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
Where: StubHub Center, L.A.
TV: CBS
Radio: WKRK-FM 92.3 (Cleveland) / KFI 640AM (LA)
Stream Option: NFL Live
Opening NFL Spread: Chargers -13.5 (42.5)

Weather Forecast

  • Partly Cloudy: 18°C/65°F
  • Humidity: 65%
  • Precipitation: 3%
  • Wind: 7 mph W
  • Cloud Cover: 53%
  • Type of Stadium: Open

Last Meeting

In Week 16 last year, the Browns were 0-14 and upset the visiting Chargers – who had nothing to play for and were ahead of their final game ever in San Diego – 20-17. The Bolts’ Josh Lambo missed a 45-yard field-goal attempt as time expired. The Browns avoided becoming the second team to go 0-15. Isaiah Crowell had two touchdown runs for Cleveland. Philip Rivers threw for 322 yards and two scores for the Chargers. Of course, Cleveland hasn’t won since.

The Chargers are 15-9-1 all-time against the Browns, and hold a 7-4-0 record against Cleveland at home.

Why Bet On Cleveland?

The Browns lost 30-16 in Cincinnati last Sunday, their fourth straight defeat by double digits. Browns rookie DeShone Kizer ran 3 yards for a touchdown on a fourth-down quarterback keeper with 6:57 left, cutting it to 23-16 before Joe Mixon’s TD run put it away. Kizer was 18 of 31 for 268 yards. He also could have had a 29-yard touchdown pass, but Corey Coleman dropped the ball in the end zone.

The Browns actually have had a good run defense this year but surrendered a season-high 152 rushing yards against the Bengals, including a career-high 114 to the rookie Mixon. The performance came after the Browns had similar issues at home against Jacksonville. In that game, the Jaguars leaned on rookie Leonard Fournette, who became the first player to eclipse the 100-yard mark against Cleveland.

“Our guys can play better. I think they’ll tell you that. That’s not who we are or who we have been all year against the run,” coach Hue Jackson said. “We have to continue to get better.”

This will be the first game since late in the 2014 season for Browns receiver Josh Gordon. He led the NFL in receiving yards in 2013 with 1,646 while playing 14 games and missing two to suspension. Gordon was suspended 11 games for the 2014 season, and every game of the next two. He has not played in a regular-season game since Dec. 21, 2014. Gordon will start and has been practicing since November 22. Last week he worked with the scout team, portraying A.J. Green. This week he was with the starters.

Team Statistics

Offense:

  • Average Score For: 15.09
  • Total Yards: 310.18
  • Pass Yards: 202.82
  • Rush Yards: 107.36

Defense:

  • Average Score Against: 26.27
  • Total Yards: 318
  • Pass Yards: 220.82
  • Rush Yards: 97.18

Why Bet On LA Chargers?

The Browns are 1-29 in their past 30 games. That is the worst 30-game stretch in NFL history. The Browns have not won a road game since Oct. 11, 2015. They have not won on a Sunday since Dec. 13, 2015 (last season’s win came on a Saturday). Cleveland has lost 28 games in a row Sundays, the longest such streak in NFL history. Jackson is 2-30 in his past 32 games as a coach, dating to his 2011 season with the Raiders. Both of his wins came on Christmas Eve. The Browns play in Chicago on Christmas Eve this season.

The Browns have been the worst team in the NFL this season against the spread too, going 2-9 ATS. That includes a 1-2 mark ATS when they’re an underdog of 10 or more points. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, the Browns are 3-8 ATS when they’re an underdog of 10 or more.

Are the Chargers a safe bet in Week 13?

The Chargers (5-6) have won five of their last seven games — including two big wins over the Cowboys and Bills — after an 0-4 start. The Chargers are ranked 10th in yards per game (357.1) and have terrorized opposing quarterbacks thanks to defensive ends Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who have combined for 19 sacks. Bosa, the 2016 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, has 10.5 sacks. Meanwhile, Tre Boston and Casey Hayward are tied for third in the NFL with four interceptions each.

Rivers has thrown for 2,948 yards, 20 touchdowns and only seven interceptions for a 95.2 passer rating.  He ranks fifth in TDs and seventh in passing yards. Keenan Allen has 23 receptions for 331 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games. Overall, he’s fifth in the league with 927 yards. He wasn’t on the field when Cleveland faced last year as Allen’s 2016 season was short-circuited by a knee injury. Melvin Gordon has rushed 188 times for 698 yards (3.7 ypc) and five touchdowns.  Undrafted rookie Austin Ekeler has 24 catches for 252 yards and three scores.

Team Statistics

Offense:

  • Average Score For: 22.64
  • Total Yards: 357.09
  • Pass Yards: 263.91
  • Rush Yards: 93.18

Defense:

  • Average Score Against: 18.36
  • Total Yards: 339.45
  • Pass Yards: 206
  • Rush Yards: 133.45

Latest NFL Betting Trends

  • Cleveland is 1-9 ATS in the last 10 games
  • Cleveland is 0-5 SU in the last 5 games
  • The total went OVER in 4 of Cleveland’s last 6 games
  • LA Chargers is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 games
  • LA Chargers is 5-2 SU in the last 7 games
  • The total went UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers’s last 6 games

Expert Prediction & NFL Spread Pick for Week 13

There’s no question the Chargers win, but this could be a bit of a trap game, specially around the NFL Spread. Buy that line up to 14.5 and take Cleveland.