NFL Vegas Lines Buccaneers at Patriots Analysis

On Sunday, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Foxboro to take on Brady’s former team, the New England Patriots. The Bucs are a solid -7 road chalk to put a beating onto Bill Belichick and the Pats. Will Brady and the Bucs come through? Or will New England step it up against their former quarterback and his current team? Check out NFL odds, analysis, and a free pick for Tampa Bay at New England.

NFL Betting Preview for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots

NFL Week 4: Tampa Bay at New England Game Odds & Info

When: Sunday, Oct. 3 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
TV / Streaming: NBC / Peacock
ATS Odds: Tampa Bay -7
Moneyline Odds: Tampa Bay -310 / New England +250
Over/Under Odds: 49

Why bet on Tampa Bay versus New England?

Tom Brady. Enough said, right? Actually, yes. Brady is averaging close to 350 passing yards per. Because the Buccaneers average 406 total yards each game, Tom Brady is the reason the Bucs score 34.3 each contest. If Brady is on, and he should be because he faces his old team, Tampa Bay can cover this spread.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offensive Averages

Total Yards: 406.0

Passing Yards: 349.7

Rushing Yards: 56.3

Points Scored: 34.3

Turnovers: 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defensive Averages

Total Yards: 402.0

Passing Yards: 338.3

Rushing Yards: 63.7

Points Scored: 29.3

Takeaways: 4

Why bet on New England versus Tampa Bay?

Tampa and Terrific Tom are seemingly scoring at will, but on Oct. 3, the Bucs face one of the best defenses in the NFL. New England holds opponents to less than 160 passing yards per game. Not only that, but Belichick knows Brady’s tendencies, which means he’s likely to create a game plan that stifles the Bucs’ offense.

New England Patriots Offensive Averages

Total Yards: 317.7

Passing Yards: 226.0

Rushing Yards: 91.7

Points Scored: 18.0

Turnovers: 5

New England Patriots Defensive Averages

Total Yards: 282.3

Passing Yards: 159.7

Rushing Yards: 122.7

Points Scored: 17.0

Takeaways: 5

Buccaneers at Patriots Relevant Trends

Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss
Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6
Over is 4-0 in Tampa Bay’s last 5 games as a favorite
New England is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
Patriots are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog
Under is 5-0 in New England’s last 5 games as an underdog

Tampa Bay Buccaneers versus New England Patriots Final Betting Prediction

The biggest storyline is Tom Brady returning to New England. But a more important storyline, one which will help us find the winner against the spread, is how the Buccaneers can’t rush the football.

Tampa averages 56.3 rushing yards per game, which ranks thirty-first in the league. The Patriots are excellent against the pass, which means the Buccaneers must find a way to rush the football if they hope to cover this spread.

Also lost in the discussions about this game is the fact Mac Jones, New England’s quarterback, hasn’t played that badly. Mac threw 3 picks against the Saints in week 3.

1 of the interceptions, the one the Saints returned for a pick six, wasn’t his fault. Not only that, but New Orleans is great versus the rush and the pass.

The Bucs rank thirty-second in passing yards allowed per game. Don’t be surprised if Jones throws his best pro game.

Tampa should eke out a victory. Covering the spread will be difficult. The Patriots are the play.

NFL Week 4 Pick: New England Patriots +7

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