Can the Jaguars Cover NFL Spread vs. the Colts in Week 13?

Can the Jaguars Cover NFL Spread vs. the Colts in Week 13?

Written by Jordan Walters on Thursday,November 30, 2017 9:28, EDT

The Jacksonville Jaguars haven’t made the playoffs since 2007. But they are tied for first atop the AFC South and Sunday’s home game against a bad Colts team is the type of matchup Jacksonville must win to end that postseason drought. MyBookie oddsmakers think the Jags will have little trouble covering the NFL spread.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville Week 13 NFL Spread & Prediction

When: Sunday, 1 PM ET
Where: EverBank Field, Jacksonville
TV: CBS
Radio: 1070 The Fan (Indianapolis) / 1010 XL (Jacksonville)
Stream Option: NFL Live
Opening NFL Spread: Jaguars -9.5 (40.5)

Weather Forecast

  • Partly Cloudy: 22°C/72°F
  • Humidity: 66%
  • Precipitation: 1%
  • Wind: 7 mph NE
  • Cloud Cover: 41%
  • Type of Stadium: Open

Last Meeting

In Week 7, the Jags dominated the Colts in a 27-0 win. Blake Bortles threw for a season-high 330 yards and one touchdown, and T.J. Yeldon scored on a 58-yard run. Yeldon played a lot because rookie star running back Leonard Fournette was out with an ankle injury. He’s healthy now. The Jags tied a team record with 10 sacks. Jacksonville got its first shutout since a 41-0 victory over the New York Jets on Oct. 8, 2006. Indy was shut out in the regular season for the first time since Dec. 26, 1993. The Colts’ only serious scoring chance was snuffed out with a fourth-down stop at the Jaguars 6-yard line. Jacksonville had 518 yards in total offense compared with 232 for the Colts.

Why Bet On Indianapolis?

The Indianapolis Colts won win this game, but they might be able to cover. They have dropped five of six following a 20-16 home loss to Tennessee last week. Tennessee converted two field goals in the first quarter and jumped out to a quick 6-0 lead. Indianapolis then registered 16 unanswered points in the second and third quarters. Kicker Adam Vinatieri converted three field goals and running back Frank Gore tallied a 14-yard rushing touchdown to pad a 16-6 lead.

The Titans sacked Jacoby Brissett eight times; repeatedly stopped the Colts after they had taken that 16-6 lead on Vinatieri’s 42-yard field goal in the third quarter; and Tennessee made the game-changing play when Kevin Byard recovered Marlon Mack’s fumble at the Colts 4-yard line late in the period. Indy is now one loss away from having the first losing year in coach Chuck Pagano’s six seasons.

The Colts have given up 47 sacks through 11 games this season. They are on pace to allow a franchise-worst 68 sacks. Only 5 teams in the history of the NFL have given up more sacks in a single season. The 47 sacks the Colts have already allowed this year easily eclipse the five previous teams Pagano has coached. And the Colts have 5 games to add to that number.

Indy will be without two key players this week in center Ryan Kelly and cornerback Rashaan Melvin. Melvin, who has been the Colts’ best cornerback this season, injured his right hand when he dove to the ground and intercepted a pass intended for Titans receiver Harry Douglas. Melvin is tied for the team high in interceptions with three. Kelly suffered concussion last week. Pagano said seventh-year veteran Mike Person would get the start in Kelly’s place. Person has played in all seven games since signing with the Colts on Oct. 3, though mostly in a special teams role.

Why Bet On Jacksonville?

The Jaguars have been the safest bet in the NFL during odd weeks. They have gone 6-0 straight up and against the spread in the five games they’ve played during an odd week (Weeks 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 and 11).

Since the first win over the Colts, the Jaguars have only improved defensively, ranking No. 1 in total defense and No. 1 in scoring defense. However, Jacksonville comes off a 27-24 loss in Arizona on a last-second 57-yard field goal. The Jaguars’ defense registered one sack and two turnovers, Calais Campbell’s fumble recovery and a fourth-quarter interception by safety Barry Church.

Bortles was intercepted by Cardinals safety Tyrann Mathieu to end the ensuing drive. Bortles’ pick was a total back-breaker with the game tied 24-24. The Jaguars were already on the fringe of K Josh Lambo’s field-goal range at the time. Bortles was 6-for-10 for 49 yards and an interception in the fourth quarter. Bortles has completed just 44 percent of his passes with no touchdowns and three interceptions in the fourth quarter and overtime of one-possession games this season. He’s also averaging 3.8 yards per attempt. In the fourth quarter of games this season, Bortles is completing 57.5 percent of his passes with one touchdown and four interceptions. His passer rating of 55.7 ranks 35th.

Against Arizona, Jacksonville’s No. 1-ranked rushing offense produced only 91 yards. Sixty-two of those yards were from Bortles. The Jaguars are averaging more than 40 yards fewer per game than they did before their Week 8 bye. Fournette is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry and hasn’t run for a touchdown in the past four games. The Jaguars have managed to go 3-1 despite that thanks to their defense.

Pagano on the Jaguars’ defense: “There’s no chinks in the armor when you face this group. There’s no weaknesses. It’s hard to say, ‘OK, we’re going to go after this guy or that guy.’ It’s a fantastic unit and they’re extremely well-coached.”

Latest NFL Spread Trends

  • Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in the last 6 games on the road
  • Indianapolis is 1-5 SU in the last 6 games
  • The total went UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games
  • Jacksonville is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games at home
  • Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in the last 5 games
  • The total went UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville’s last 5 games

Expert Prediction & NFL Week 13 Pick

The Colts are not a good defensive team so Bortles might actually be decent. Give the points – but if the NFL spread hits double digits, go Indy.