Chicago at Indianapolis Expert Pick & Lines

Posted by Eric Williams on Friday,October 7, 2016 3:33, EST in

Since I’ve already titled the Tennessee-Miami Week 5 matchup, ‘The Desperation Bowl’ I can’t use that moniker for this Week 5 matchup of one-win teams although both have just as much desperation as the one-win Titans and Dolphins. Now, let’s find out which one of these teams is offering the most value in the NFL lines.

Here’s a Look at the Chicago at Indianapolis Expert Pick, Lines & TV Info

When: Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium
TV: FOX
Radio: Chicago / Indianapolis
Live Stream: NFL Live
NFL Odds: Indianapolis Colts -4.5
Over/Under: 47.5

Why Bet The Chicago Bears?

The Bears have the far better head coach! Chicago (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) got its first win of the season in Week 4 by beating NFC North division rival Detroit 17-14 while covering the NFL betting odds as a 3-point underdog. Veteran backup Brian Hoyer started in place of the injured Jay Cutler and looked very solid by completing 28-of- 36 passes for 302 yards and two touchdowns while running back Jordan Howard rushed for 111 yards on 23 carries. Veteran wide receiver Eddie Royal caught team-high seven passes for 111 yards and one touchdown. Cutler, running back Jeremy Langford and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery could all miss this affair. The Bears are averaging a pitiful 15.5 points per game this season (32nd) while allowing 24.5 points per game defensively (19th).

Why Bet The Indianapolis Colts?

The Colts have the huge edge at quarterback and are playing at home. Indianapolis (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) has lost a bunch of heartbreaking games this season including their crushing 30-27 Week 4 loss against Jacksonville in London while failing to cover the spread as a 1-point favorite. Indianapolis had to score three touchdowns in the final period just to make the final score close. Quarterback Andrew Luck completed 27-of- 42 passes for 234 yards and two touchdowns while tossing one interception. Veteran running back Frank Gore rushed 16 times for 68 yards and one score, while Phillip Dorsett was the high man in the receiving game with one catch for 64 yards and a score.  The Colts are averaging a solid 27.0 points per game (eighth), but are giving up a whopping 31.2 points per game defensively (30th).

My Expert Prediction and Pick

I’m going to get right to the point by saying that the Indianapolis Colts are my pick to win this Week 5 matchup while narrowly covering the NFL betting line, although I’m worried about the state of the Colts’ clearly clueless offensive line. Chicago is 6-3 ATS in its last nine road games, but just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. While Indianapolis has gone 3-6 ATS in its last nine games, the Colts are also 4-0 ATS in their last four Week 5 games, 22-7 ATS in their L/29 games versus a team with a losing record and a bankroll-boosting 26-11- 1 ATS in their last 38 home games. Sheer desperation should carry the Colts to the SU and ATS victory in this matchup.

My Pick: Indianapolis 31 Chicago 27