Chicago vs Green Bay Lines & Expert Pick

Posted by Jordan Walterss on October 18, 2016 in

The NFL’s oldest rivalry is renewed on Thursday Night Football this week in the NFL as the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers meet for the 193rd time. Both teams come off disappointing losses in Week 6 and the Bears might be better than only winless Cleveland this year. Let’s take a look at the NFL odds.

Here’s a Quick Look at the Chicago vs Green Bay Lines, Expert Pick & TV Info

When: Thursday, Oct. 20, 8:30 PM ET
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay
RadioChicagoGreen Bay
Stream Option: NFL Live
Opening NFL Lines: Packers -9 (45.5)

Why Bet on Chicago?

The Bears (1-5) blew Sunday’s game vs. Jacksonville, losing 17-16 at home. Blake Bortles threw for 271 yards and hit a slipping Arrelious Benn for a 51-yard touchdown in the closing minutes. Benn slipped as he caught a slant and so did Tracy Porter as he tried to tag the receiver. That allowed Benn, who spent the past three seasons on injured reserve, to get up and run untouched for his first touchdown in five seasons.

Somehow, the Bears blew a 13-point fourth-quarter lead — spoiling a respectable effort by the defense, which made a couple of game-changing plays, courtesy of cornerback Tracy Porter (end zone interception) and linebacker Willie Young (sack, forced fumble).

The Bears' Brian Hoyer threw for 302 yards, his fourth straight 300-yard game filling in for the injured Jay Cutler (sprained right thumb). Cameron Meredith had 11 catches for 113 yards. Alshon Jeffery added 93 yards receiving. With Chicago ranked 32nd in points scored (16.8 points per game), head coach John Fox eventually has to decide between Brian Hoyer and Jay Cutler, who has missed four consecutive games due to a sprained right thumb. Cutler won’t play Thursday.

The Bears can move the ball with Hoyer, who has no interceptions in 189 pass attempts. And even in Sunday’s crushing defeat, Chicago’s offense outgained Jacksonville’s 389 yards to 317 yards, and won time of possession 35:47 to 24:13. But the Bears aren’t scoring enough points. The Bears are getting nowhere on the ground as they approach the goal line. They entered this week averaging 1.6 yards per carry in the red zone and had four red zone carries for 6 yards vs. Jacksonville.

The Bears are 1-5 for the first time since 2004, Lovie Smith’s first season, and look destined for 1-7 with games against the Packers and Vikings next. This franchise has not opened a season 1-7 since 2000.

Why Bet on Green Bay?

The Packers were totally outplayed at home by Dallas on Sunday in a 30-16 loss. The Packers had five fumbles on the day, losing three. Even two- NFL MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers wasn’t immune from the booing. Rodgers finished 31 of 42 for a season-high 294 yards. The Packers didn’t get into the end zone until Rodgers and Cobb connected on a 6-yard touchdown pass with 6:53 left to get within 27-16. Rodgers accounted for two turnovers with an interception to go with a fumble on first-and- goal at the Cowboys 1 with 1:10 left in the third quarter.

Green Bay was tops in the league in run defense coming in and having not allowed a rush of 20 yards or more all season, the Packers eventually wore down. Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott hit them for runs of 25 and 29 on his way to 97 yards in the second half. Elliott added to his league-leading rushing total with 157 yards on 28 carries.

Running back Eddie Lacy needs to recover quickly from a 17-carry outing on a bad ankle, and it’s TBA on right tackle Bryan Bulaga (back). No. 3 receiver Davante Adams has a concussion. Adams left the game in the third quarter after a hit from Cowboys linebacker Sean Lee. The team announced he was being evaluated for a concussion. On his way out of the locker room on Sunday night, he said he did not have one, but that changed on Monday. Adams is unlikely to be cleared by Thursday.

Coach Mike McCarthy already announced that cornerback Quinten Rollins (groin) would be out again this week, keeping the secondary thin with Sam Shields (concussion) and Damarious Randall (re-injured groin) presumably long shots at best.

Since 2010, one of the biggest locks in football has been betting on Rodgers straight-up in a prime-time game at home. Over the past six years, Rodgers is 13-3 at home in night games. Since 2014, the Packers are 7-3- 1 ATS coming off a loss, the third-best record in the NFL in that span.

My Expert Pick

Give the points on NFL odds as the Packers should win by at least two touchdowns. Chicago is that bad.