Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots Betting Pick

Posted by Eric Williams on January 12, 2016 in

Alex Smith and the incendiary Kansas City Chiefs will look to keeping their winning ways going by knocking off Tom Brady and the experienced New England Patriots when the two Super Bowl hopefuls square off in their intriguing AFC Divisional playoff showdown this coming weekend.

Winners of a whopping 11 straight games, the Chiefs look like they could pose big problems against the defending Super Bowl champs.

Now, let’s find out if the Chiefs can pull off the upset when they visit the Pats on Saturday, January 16 at 4:35 PM ET, live from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. For our NFL betting lines, click here.

How To Bet The Kansas City Chiefs Vs Houston Texans NFL Wild Card Odds & TV Info

Kansas City at New England
When: 4:35 PM ET, Saturday, January 16, 2016
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
NFL Odds: New England -5
Over/Under: 43
Watch Online Here

The Patriots are 5-point home favorites to beat Kansas City while the game’s Over/Under total is sitting at 43 after opening at 44.5.

Why Bet The Kansas City Chiefs Odds at +5

Because they’re the hottest team in all of football – and very good on both sides of the ball!

The first thing you need to know about the Chiefs (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS, 8-8-1 O/U) is that Kansas City is very good on both sides of the ball.

Kansas City ranked ninth in scoring (25.3 ppg) and third in points allowed (17.9 ppg) even though no one really seems to give K.C. their just due credit – on either side of the ball.

Despite losing their best player in Pro Bowl running back Jamaal Charles, Kansas City ranked sixth in rushing (127.8 ypg) and have a passing attack that is far better than their No. 30 ranking.

The Chiefs have a ‘rock-steady’ quarterback in veteran signal-caller Alex Smith. The former No. 1 overall draft pick completed an impressive 65.3 percent of his passes for 3,486 yards with 16 touchdowns and seven picks while compiling a quarterback rating of 95.4.

Chiefs’ tight end Travis Kelce earned a pro bowl berth by catching 75 passes for 875 yards and five scores and No. 1 wide receiver Jeremy Maclin is elite, even though he may not be at full strength for this contest after suffering a high ankle sprain against Houston this past weekend.

The Chiefs ranked in the top 10 in all four major defensive statistical categories and have a trio of Pro Bowl defenders in linebackers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, along with rookie cornerback Marcus Peters that could all make life miserable for Tom Brady and the Pats’ offense.

Why Bet The New England Patriots Odds at -5

With Bill Belichick on their sideline.
With Bill Belichick on their sideline, New England never gets out-coached.

Because they’re playing at home and have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick on their side!

New England (12-4 SU, 7-7-2 ATS, 9-7 O/U) has won four straight home playoff games while winning nine of their last 10 home dates overall and compiling a solid 5-2-3 ATS mark along the way. The Pats have compiled a scorching-hot 18-2 SU mark over their last 20 home games and a bankroll-boosting 12-5-3 ATS mark during that stretch.

In addition to playing at home, where winning is apparently a near-lock, the Patriots will also be able to turn to the most successful quarterback in NFL playoff history when Tom Brady takes the field.

The most accomplished passer in postseason history, has won an insane 72.4 percent of his postseason starts while compiling a consistent 21-8 record. Despite his receiving corps suffering a series of decimating injuries, Brady somehow managed to finish fourth in passer rating (102.2) and third in passing yards (4,770). With wide receiver Julian Edelman set to return for this contest, Brady and the Pats’ passing attack could regain some of the mojo they’ve lost over the better part of their last eight weeks.

Last but not least, the Patriots never get out-coached with the incomparable Bill Belichick on their sideline. I love Kansas City’s Andy Reid and I believe he’s about as elite as it gets for an NFL head coach, but the fact of the matter is that Belichick stands completely along when it comes to NFL coaching.

New England has gone 8-1 in divisional-round playoff games under Belichick when they get a first-round bye like they’ve had this year – and that simply doesn’t bode well for the Chiefs coming into this contest.

Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction

I know the New England Patriots are playing at home and favored to win, but for me, I believe the Kansas City Chiefs are not only the right pick to cover the 5-point spread, but the right pick to win outright!

60 percent of the betting public likes Kansas City to cover the spread and again, I say that’s easily the right call for this contest.

The Chiefs are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five road games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall and a consistent 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against their AFC counterparts.

While the Patriots have gone 4-1-2 ATS in their last seven home games and 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 home games against a team with a winning road record, the Patriots are also just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 playoff games and a surprising 4-9 ATS in their last 13 playoff home games.

Right now, I say the Kansas City Chiefs are the better team on both sides of the ball and they’ll cover the spread by winning outright!

My final score prediction is Kansas City 27 New England 24