Chiefs at Patriots NFL Week 1 Expert Betting Analysis

Chiefs at Patriots NFL Week 1 Expert Betting Analysis

Written by on September 5, 2017

The moment that all football fans have been waiting for has finally arrived, as Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season is upon us. As is always the case, it will be the defending Super Bowl champions who get the privilege of opening the season, which means that it will once again be the New England Patriots starting at home in NFL Week 1.The Patriots are once again the prohibitive favorites to hoist the Lombardo trophy once this season is all said and done, but they certainly have not been dealt any favors by the schedule makers in the opening week of the season. It will be the Kansas City Chiefs who head into Foxboro on Thursday night, and they represent a formidable opponent that will not just roll over and play dead for the defending champions. The Patriots are in as an 8.5-point favorite for this one, which seems a little high to me, and the O/U has been set at 48 points.

Chiefs at Patriots NFL Week 1 Expert Betting Analysis

When: Thursday, September 7 at 8:30 PM ESTWhere: Gillette Stadium, FoxboroTV: NBCRadio: Sirius XM RadioLive Stream: NFL Game PassNFL Week 1 Odds: New England Patriots -8½ (-115)Weather Forecast
  • Clear: 18°C/64°F
  • Humidity 70%
  • Precipitation % 3%
  • Cloud Cover 26%
  • Wind 6 mph WSW
  • Stadium Type Open

Why Bet on the Kansas City Chiefs?

The Kansas City Chiefs are a team that has been very good in the regular season over the past few years, but who have failed to translate those wins to playoff success. Alex Smith has been very good at the QB position for the Chiefs, but the lack of wins in the playoffs may have KC looking to make a change.They traded up to get QB Patrick Mahomes in the first round of the draft, which appears to many as a sign that this season is the last chance that Smith will to get the job done before he is replaced. Like I said earlier, the Chiefs know how to win, and have gone 10-3 in their last 13 games. They have also proven to be a very good bet ATS, going 5-0 in their last 5 games on the road. That said, they have struggled ATS versus the New England Patriots, going just 4-8 in their last 12 meetings.

Team Statistics

  • Offensive total yards 336.24
  • Current Offensive rush yards 106.47
  • Offensive passing yards 229.76
  • Average Score For 23.82
  • Defensive total yards 369.76
  • Current Defensive rush yards 124.12
  • Defensive passing yards 245.65
  • Average Score Against 19.35

Patriots Lead in NFL Odds vs. Chiefs in Thursday’s Season Opener

Why Bet on the New England Patriots?

We haven’t seen a ball snapped in a regular season game yet and the New England Patriots are already facing some adversity. They lost WR Julian Edelman, one of Tom Brady’s favorite targets, to a season-ending injury during the preseason. It is a massive blow for this offense, but New England have proven in the past that they can be successful no matter who they have in the receiver slots. Perhaps the biggest question heading into this season is how Tom Brady is going to perform now that he has turned 40.The Patriots head into NFL Week 1 as the betting favorites.His performance in the Super Bowl last season would suggest that he will be just fine, but we tend to see QB’s hit the wall very hard when they get up there in years. The Patriots went 16-3 ATS last season, and are also now 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games at home. This is a team that is tough to beat wherever they play, but who a particularly tough nut to crack in their own are building. They will be looking to jump out to a fast start to prove to the rest of the league that their dynasty is still intact.

Team Statistics

  • Offensive total yards 396.63
  • Current Offensive rush yards 112.16
  • Offensive passing yards 284.47
  • Average Score For 28.68
  • Defensive total yards 327.47
  • Current Defensive rush yards 88.37
  • Defensive passing yards 239.11
  • Average Score Against 16.37

Latest NFL Week 1 Trends

  • Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games
  • Kansas City is 10-3 SU in the last 13 games
  • The total went UNDER in 9 of Kansas City’s last 13 games
  • New England is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games
  • New England is 5-0 SU in the last 5 games
  • The total went OVER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games

Expert Pick and NFL Week 1 Final Score Prediction

While all the trends would seem to suggest that the Patriots will win and cover in the 2017 NFL season opener, I have a hunch that this game is going to be closer than a lot of people expect. I like the Chiefs to keep this thing close, throughout, although I do believe that they will end up on the losing end. Let’s go with the Patriots to win, the Chiefs to cover, and the UNDER.NFL Week 1 Pick: Kansas City Chiefs 20 New England Patriots 24
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