Cincinnati at New England Free Pick & Lines

Posted by Jordan Walterss on October 14, 2016 in

It should be quite a boisterous crowd at Gillette Stadium on Sunday as New England quarterback Tom Brady plays his first home game of the season as the Patriots (4-1) host the disappointing Cincinnati Bengals (2-3). The Pats are the biggest favorites on the NFL betting board for Week 6.

How To Bet on the Cincinnati at New England Free Pick, Lines & TV Info

When: Sunday, Oct. 16, 1 PM ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Mass.
RadioCincinnati / New England
Stream Option: NFL Live
Opening NFL Lines: Patriots -8 (47)

Why Bet on Cincinnati?

The Bengals really haven’t looked good at times this season and their shot of reaching the playoffs for a sixth straight season is in jeopardy. Last week, the Bengals were slight favorites at Dallas but lost 28-14. The Bengals trailed 28-0 before Andy Dalton threw a 7-yard touchdown pass to Brandon LaFell with about 10 minutes left. That duo hooked up again for a 5-yard score with 2:39 left. Dalton finished 29 of 41 for 269 yards.

The first three quarters of the Bengals’ loss could be called their worst performance in several years. The Bengals struggled to run the ball again and essentially gave up trying after going down 21-0 in the first half. It didn’t help that Jeremy Hill left the game in the third quarter with a chest injury. Hill had only four carries for 12 yards. He will play this week.

The recent return of linebacker Vontaze Burfict has helped stabilize Cincinnati’s run defense, which finished among the top 10 in the NFL a year ago. Cincinnati struggled with its top run-stuffer on the shelf for the first three weeks of 2016 but has been improving each week.

The Bengals have a tall task ahead, as the Patriots are 47-1 vs. AFC opponents in the regular season at home under Brady since 2007. In 2014, the Bengals were blown out 43-17 at New England after getting into a 20-3 hole at halftime. Hill, then a rookie, had the worst rushing game of his career, carrying the ball twice for 1 yard. The Bengals have never won in Gillette Stadium in three tries. They are 2-9 on the road against the Patriots, with their last win coming in 1986.

Why Bet on New England?

Because the Pats just never lose at home vs. AFC teams! Since Brady became the Patriots’ starting quarterback in Week 3 of the 2001 season, he is 97-15 at home during the regular season, the best win percentage (.866) by any starting quarterback who has made at least 50 home starts since 1960. The last time Brady started and played the entire game in a home loss against an AFC foe was on Nov. 12, 2006, when the Patriots lost 17-14 to the New York Jets.

Last week in Brady’s season debut, the Pats rolled 33-13 at Cleveland. The Patriots wasted no time in dismantling the Browns, jumping out to a 23-7 halftime lead. Brady completed 28 of 40 passes (70.0 percent) for 406 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions for a 127.7 passer rating. Brady has 38 career games with at least 350 passing yards, the second-most in NFL history. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick recorded his 250th career win (including the postseason). He is the fourth head coach in NFL history with at least 250 career wins.

With Brady back in the lineup, the Patriots finally resemble the efficient, quick-strike offense opposing defenses have grown accustomed to seeing over the past decade. Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman both benefited from Brady’s return in Week 5. He spread the ball around to seven different receivers and was sacked just once while throwing it 40 times.

Linebacker Rob Ninkovich was the other Patriots player to return last week following a four-game suspension, as the veteran missed the early part of the year for taking performance-enhancing drugs. He was eased back into action, recording a tackle as he rotated in.

The Patriots have won six straight home games vs. the Bengals, with the last loss coming in 1986. The team’s last played on a Sunday Night Football game in 2014 with the Patriots taking a 43-17 win on Oct. 5, 2014.

My Free Pick

Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

I agree with the NFL trends, take the Patriots on NFL odds and go over.