Remember Deflategate? The New England Patriots and their fans certainly do. The team that “told on” the Patriots? That would be the Indianapolis Colts from the AFC title game following the 2014 season. Indy plays at New England this Thursday for the first time since then. The Pats are the biggest NFL Week 5 betting favorites.
How to Bet Colts at Patriots NFL Odds & TV Info
- When: Thursday, 8:20 PM ET
- Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro
- TV: Fox/NFL Network
- Radio: SiriusXM
- NFL Week 5 Odds: New England Patriots -10 (Total 53.5)
SUPER BOWL ODDS TO WIN
Weather Forecast
- Chance of Rain: 18°C/65°F
- Humidity: 87%
- Precipitation: 35%
- Cloud Cover: 50%
- Wind: 6 mph SW
- Stadium Type: Open
Last Meeting
New England has won the past seven in this series. They last played Week 6 of the 2015 season at Indianapolis, with the Patriots prevailing 34-27. Tom Brady threw for 312 yards and three scores. Brady finished 23 of 37 in the first meeting since the AFC title tilt following the 2014 season, which ultimately led to allegations of improperly inflated balls, months of investigation and eventually a four-game suspension of Brady. Andrew Luck was 30 of 50 for 312 yards with three touchdowns in the loss.
Why Bet on Indianapolis?
Colts coach Frank Reich made an incredibly stupid decision in Sunday’s 37-34 overtime loss to Houston that basically gave the Texans the game late in the OT. The Colts, who had come back from a 28-10 second-half deficit, had the ball fourth-and-4 from their own 43-yard line when quarterback Andrew Luck’s throw was landed at receiver Chester Rogers’ feet, giving Houston a short field to work with to win the game.
DeShaun Watson completed a 24-yard pass to receiver DeAndre Hopkins on a play to put the Texans in position for a Ka’imi Fairbairn 37-yard field goal to win the game and send the Colts to their second straight loss. Indy could easily be 4-0 instead of 1-3.
Reich on the failed fourth-down attempt in overtime: “Whenever you lose you always go back and re-evaluate every play. In the perfect scenario, we don’t call timeout, we just go for it the first time. There’s no doubt that’s the probably the best way to play it out. But that’s not how it played out. That’s on me.”
Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri passed Hall of Famer Morten Andersen for the most field goals in NFL history late in the first half of Sunday’s game. Vinatieri made a 42-yard field goal with two seconds left in the first half to give him 566 for his career. He needed 38 fewer field goal attempts than Andersen to break the record. Vinatieri, a surefire future Hall of Fame selection, has made 303 field goals during his 13 years with the Colts and 263 during his first 10 years with the New England Patriots.
Vinatieri should also pass Andersen for the NFL’s all-time points lead (2,544) at some point later this season, barring some kind of injury.
Sunday’s loss ruined a huge game from Luck. Luck completed 40-of-62 passes for 464 yards and four touchdowns. The 62 attempts and 464 yards both set new career-highs for Luck. At one point, the Colts trailed by three possessions in the second half. But Luck rallied the team back. Nyheim Hines rushed four times for 10 yards and caught 9-of-11 targets for 63 yards and two touchdowns.
Hines’ 11 targets tied with Chester Rogers for the team lead. With no Jack Doyles (hip) and T.Y. Hilton in and out of the game with chest and hamstring injuries, Hines became Luck’s most trustworthy option. Both of his scores were red-zone successes, from 14 and nine yards out. Reich said Hilton is unlikely to play against the Patriots.
Colts cornerback Kenny Moore exited Week 4 against the Texans with a concussion. Moore is the Colts’ top corner in a defense desperate for cornerback talent.
Team Stats
Offense- Average Score For: 23.50
- Total Yards: 337.00
- Rush Yards: 72.00
- Passing Yards: 265.00
- Average Score Against: 25.00
- Total Yards: 377.25
- Rush Yards: 109.25
- Passing Yards: 268.00
Why Bet on New England?
New England quarterback Tom Brady passed for 274 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions for a 94.2 passer rating in the Patriots’ 38-7 victory over Miami on Sunday. With his 55-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson in the second quarter, Brady has thrown at least one touchdown pass to 70 different receivers in his career, tied with Vinny Testaverde (70) for the most by a player NFL history.
Brady’s favorite target, tight end Rob Gronkowski was forced from Sunday’s game against the Dolphins with an ankle injury and didn’t return. Gronk had a middling four catches for 44 yards before going down. Not clear if he will play here. Brady will get back top receiver Julian Edelman, though, from a four-game suspension. Brady hasn’t had much success targeting receivers without Edelman. He ranks 31st out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks in yards per attempt on such throws (5.5) and his completion percentage to receivers ranks 27th (57 percent). Brady has been missed on 31 percent of his passes toward receivers, the worst such rate in the NFL.
Josh Gordon caught 2-of-2 targets for 32 yards against Miami in his New England debut. Gordon’s first catch was a 13-yarder on the Patriots’ opening drive. The second was a spinning 19-yarder in the third. Gordon also drew a defensive holding penalty and had a third target nullified by a Dolphins offsides penalty.
Sony Michel rushed 25 times for 112 yards and a touchdown in Sunday’s win. The rookie piled up 36 yards on his first four carries. That was enough for the Patriots to lean on Michel all afternoon as they deconstructed the Dolphins. With Rex Burkhead (neck) on injured reserve, Michel should continue to get plenty of carries.
Team Stats
Offense- Average Score For: 23.75
- Total Yards: 337.25
- Rush Yards: 117.00
- Passing Yards: 220.25
- Average Score Against: 21.00
- Total Yards: 348.00
- Rush Yards: 121.50
- Passing Yards: 226.50
Colts vs Patriots NFL Week 5 Betting Trends
- Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
- Indianapolis is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indianapolis’s last 12 games
- New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
- New England is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 13 of New England’s last 19 games
Expert NFL Betting Prediction for Colts vs Patriots
By that spread up to 10.5 and take Indy.
