Ryan Tannehill and the Miami Dolphins are undefeated after three games while Tom Brady and the perennially powerful New England Patriots have…wait for it…lost two consecutive games!
Now, with the Fins looking for the big road upset and the Pats looking to bounce back better than a 1970s ‘super ball’ let’s find out which team is offering the best value against their NFL betting odds when they square off in their NFL Week 4 AFC East divisional showdown.
Dolphins at Patriots NFL Week 4 Lines & Game Info
When: Sunday, September 30th. 1pm ET Where: Gillette Stadium, Jacksonville, FL TV: CBS NFL Week 4 Odds: New England -7 / Total: 47.5
Weather Forecast
- Clear: 17°C/62°F
- Humidity: 56%
- Precipitation: 0%
- Wind: 8 mph W
- Cloud Cover: 6%
- Type of Stadium: Open
Why Bet on the Miami Dolphins?
Why should you bet on the Dolphins in this Week 4 AFC East divisional battle? Because the Fins are playing football on both sides of the ball. Miami beat up on Oakland in its 28-20 Week 3 win to cash in as a 3-point home favorite. Wide receiver Albert Wilson tossed a 52-yard TD pass to out Miami up midway through the fourth quarter and then took a short catch 74 yards to the house for another score.
Ryan Tannehill passed for 289 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
“We made some big plays when it mattered,” Tannehill said. “With the explosiveness we have, we just have to keep doing our job and not press.”
The Dolphins are 3-0 for only the third time since 1998.
“We’re on the right track,” Tannehill said. “Are we there yet? No. But the patterns we’re establishing are going to take us there.”
Team Statistics
Offense:- Average Score For: 25
- Total Yards: 324
- Pass Yards: 225.33
- Rush Yards: 98.67
- Average Score Against: 17.33
- Total Yards: 377.33
- Pass Yards: 288.33
- Rush Yards: 89
Why Bet on the New England Patriots?
Why should you bet on the Patriots? Well, because a three-game losing streak just isn’t something you see out of Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the perennially powerful Patriots. The bad news is that New England looks like a team with motivation – and lack of talent – problems.
The Patriots were man-handled in their surprising 26-10 beatdown at the hands of the Detroit Lions on Sunday. Tom Brady was limited to
14 of 26 passing for just 133 yards with one touchdown and one interception. New England allowed Matt Stafford to toss two TD passes and the Pats became the first team to allow the Lions to have a 100-yard rusher in their last 70 games. The Pats have lost two of their first three games for the first time since 2012.
“We just didn’t do anything well enough to give ourselves a chance to win,” Belichick said. “Similar situation last week — get behind early, played from behind and just weren’t able to make it up. So, just going to have to work our way out of it. Obviously, we’ve got a lot of work to do. There’s no shortcut, no easy way. Just got to do a better job.”
The Patriots entered Sunday night’s contest against Detroit with a stellar 45-6 record after a regular-season loss since 2003.
“Right now, it feels like two bad weeks of football,” safety Devin McCourty said.
Team Statistics
Offense:- Average Score For: 23.50
- Total Yards: 345.50
- Pass Yards: 243.50
- Rush Yards: 102
- Average Score Against: 25.50
- Total Yards: 403
- Pass Yards: 267.50
- Rush Yards: 135.50
Dolphins at Patriots NFL Week 4 Betting Trends
- Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
- Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games on the road
- New England is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
- New England is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 12 of New England’s last 18 games
Expert NFL Betting Analysis and Prediction for Dolphins at Patriots
While I just can’t see New England losing three straight games, I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t see them losing two straight after getting smacked around by Jacksonville in Week 2. Having said that, the Patriots are clearly a team with problems on both sides of the ball this season and Miami has been a bit of a revelation in looking a lot like the team that went 10-6 in 2016 to make the playoffs.
Not only that, but the Dolphins beat the Patriots the last time they played, winning 27-20 last season as a 10.5-point home underdog. Right now, the Dolphins are averaging six points per game more than the Patriots (19.0 ppg) while also giving up 8.4 fewer points per game defensively.
While the favorite in this long division rivalry has gone 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Dolphins have gone 0-6 ATS in their last six road dates against the Pats, I’m going with Miami to cover a spread that should be way closer to a field goal than the nearly touchdown figure it’s sitting at right now.
The Dolphins are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win and an identical 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September while New england has gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. I’m going with the Patriots for the outright home win just because they’re going to bring a serious effort, but I’m going with the Fins to cover – and push the Patriots for the outright win.
NFL Week 4 Pick: Patriots 24 Dolphins 21
