Despite sitting at 6-8, the Miami Dolphins still have some playoff hope, although it would take a minor miracle. Those hopes will vanish should the Fins lose on Sunday in Kansas City, which is looking to repeat as AFC West champion and a solid NFL lines favorite.
Miami at Kansas City Week 16 NFL Lines & Expert Prediction
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 21, 2017
When: Sunday, 1 PM ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, KC
Radio: 560 WQAM (Miami) / 101 The FOX (Kansas City)
Stream Option: NFL Live
Opening NFL Lines: Chiefs -10 (43.5)
- Partly Cloudy: 1°C/33°F
- Humidity: 39%
- Precipitation: 15%
- Wind: 13 mph WNW
- Cloud Cover: 59%
- Type of Stadium: Open
In Week 3 of the 2014 season, Miami lost 34-15 at home to Kansas City. Alex Smith threw for 186 yards and Knile Davis (long gone now) rushed for 132 and a touchdown. Smith led touchdown drives of 62, 76 and 66 yards in a span of four possessions as Kansas City took a 21-10 lead. Ryan Tannehill threw for 205 and a score for Miami, while Lamar Miller (now in Houston) rushed for 108. Not much you can take from that.
Latest NFL Lines Trends
- Miami is 2-5-2 ATS in its last 9 games
- Miami is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami’s last 9 games
- Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
- Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games
Why Bet on Miami’s NFL Lines?
The Dolphins have a winning record as a double-digit underdog this year. They 2-1 straight-up when they’re an underdog of 10 or more points while the rest of the NFL is 2-18 combined. Miami just stunned New England a couple of weeks ago as a double-digit home dog.
To earn a wild-card spot, the Dolphins need to win out, and they need help from other teams winning out and losing out. Miami wins head-to-head tiebreakers over Tennessee and LA Chargers, but it loses them against Oakland and Baltimore. In addition to upsetting the Chiefs and splitting with the Bills, to get in, the Dolphins need to finish 8-8 along with the Titans, Chargers and Bills while wanting the Ravens to pull away and jump to the top wild card.
Miami has no shot in KC if it plays like it did last week in a 24-16 loss in Buffalo. Jay Cutler completed 28-of-49 passes for 274 yards and three interceptions. It was a bad game from Cutler, who averaged just 5.6 YPA. The Dolphins only touchdown was a 1-yard Kenyan Drake run set up by a penalty.
Cutler was 5-of-15 for 90 yards and three interceptions on passes thrown 10-plus yards downfield, including 1-of-8 with two picks in the first half in Buffalo. The Chiefs have improved on defense mustering five sacks in two games to go along with five picks. Drake rushed 16 times for 78 yards and that TD. Drake has been on fire with 100-plus yards or a touchdown in four straight games.
Fins WR Jarvis Landry ranks third in the league with 143 targets this year, catching 98 passes for 844 yards and eight touchdowns. But he has just three catches for more than 20 yards this year.
- Average Score For: 18
- Total Yards: 301.58
- Pass Yards: 213.29
- Rush Yards: 88.29
- Average Score Against: 24.43
- Total Yards: 332.50
- Pass Yards: 222.57
- Rush Yards: 109.93
Why Bet on Kansas City’s NFL Lines?
Kansas City will clinch the AFC West with a win over the Dolphins, or a tie and a Chargers loss/tie, or a Chargers loss.
In the last nine December games at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs have only had two teams score more than 13 points against them. They’re 8-1 over that span. This entire year, the Chiefs haven’t allowed a team to score more than 20 points at Arrowhead Stadium, despite facing two of the league’s top 10 scoring offenses there in the Philadelphia Eagles (No. 2, 31.3 ppg), and the Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 9, 24.6 ppg).
This game will mark only the fifth time in the Andy Reid era that the Chiefs have been favored by 10 or more points in a game. In the three previous games, the Chiefs went 3-1 straight-up, but just 1-3 ATS. That one SU loss came earlier this season when the Giants beat the Chiefs 12-9 as a 10-point underdog in Week 11.
The Kansas City Chiefs’ Smith is the highest-rated QB in the NFL (105.4) yet didn’t make the Pro Bowl. Smith may eventually make the Pro Bowl as an alternate, but for now the conference’s quarterbacks are the Patriots’ Tom Brady, the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger and the Chargers’ Philip Rivers. He needs just 262 yards passing on Sunday to hit the 4,000-yard mark for the first time in his career, and the Dolphins come into this game allowing an average of 223 yards passing per game to opposing teams.
Smith has a career high in touchdown passes. His 25 TDs rank third in the AFC behind only Brady and Roethlisberger. Smith has the NFL’s best TD-to-interception ratio at 5-to-1. Smith is third the conference in yards per attempt at 8.02, behind Deshaun Watson and Brady.
Rookie RB Kareem Hunt is Pro Bowler and should be. He’s second in the NFL in rushing with 1,201 yards. Travis Kelce also made it. Kelce is first among tight ends with 79 receptions and second in yards with 991.
- Average Score For: 25.64
- Total Yards: 373.14
- Pass Yards: 252.43
- Rush Yards: 120.71
- Average Score Against: 21.57
- Total Yards: 368.64
- Pass Yards: 245.71
- Rush Yards: 122.93
Expert Prediction & Week 16 NFL Pick
Buy that number down to 9.5 points and take the Chiefs. They’ll want to clinch and rest starters in Week 17.