After having their three-game winning streak snapped, the Indianapolis Colts will be looking to avoid the upset when they host a Miami Dolphins team that picked up their first win of the season last weekend. With starting quarterback Jacoby Brissette’s availability in doubt after he suffered a sprained MCL in his left knee last weekend, let’s find out if the Colts can cover the chalk as a double-digit home favorite.
Dolphins vs Colts 2019 NFL Week 10 Lines, Betting Preview & Expert Pick
- When: Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 4:05 PM ET
- Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
- TV: CBS
- Radio: Miami / Indianapolis
- Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
- NFL Week 10 Odds: Indianapolis -10.5 / Total: 44
Why Bet On Miami?
Despite their big, 26-18 win over the pitiful New York Jets last weekend, there just aren’t a whole lot of reasons to back the Fins in this contest outside of the fact that they’re getting just over 10 points in this affair. Miami is ranked a dismal 30th in scoring (12.9 ppg) and an even more discouraging dead last in points allowed (32.0 ppg). While the Dolphins put 26 points on the board against the Jets last weekend, Miami has also been limited to 10 points or less four times while getting limited to 16 points or less in six of their eight games this season.
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Why Bet On Indianapolis?
Whether Jacoby Brissette suits up for this contest or not, there are a bunch of good reasons to back Indianapolis in this matchup. First, Indianapolis is far better than Miami on both sides of the ball in ranking 16th in scoring (22.8 ppg) and 17th in points allowed (22.1 ppg). Then, there’s the fact that the Colts are playing well despite having their three-game winning streak snapped in their narrow, 26-24 road loss to Pittsburgh last weekend. Indy has held two of their last three opponents to just 13 points and running back Marlon Mack is having a fantastic campaign by rushing for 679 yards and three scores while averaging a solid 4.3 yards per carry. Last but not least, the Colts have won three of their four home dates this season.
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Expert Analysis and Prediction
While I’m not expecting Miami to challenge for the outright road upset, the Fins do look like they could cover the chalk in this matchup. First, Miami has gone a near-perfect 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road dates against Indianapolis. Then, there’s the fact that the road team in this series has gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings while the underdog in this AFC rivalry has gone 12-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings. With the Dolphins going 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win and the Colts going 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a losing record, I think the handwriting is on the wall for a Miami ATS cover.
Pick: Indianapolis 24 Miami 17
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