Falcons vs Panthers 2019 NFL Week 11 Spread, Game Info & Expert Pick

Falcons vs Panthers 2019 NFL Week 11 Spread, Game Info & Expert Pick

Written by on November 12, 2019

Kyle Allen and the Carolina Panthers will be looking to hold down the fort at home when they host Matt Ryan and an Atlanta Falcons team that has nothing left to play for this season except pride. With Carolina looking to improve its playoff hopes and Atlanta looking to play the role of spoilers from here on out, let’s find out if Carolina can cover the chalk as slightly less than touchdown home favorites.

Falcons vs Panthers 2019 NFL Week 11 Spread, Game Info & Expert Pick

Why Bet On Atlanta?

Despite their pitiful one-win record prior to last weekend’s meeting against the Saints, there are a few good reasons to back Atlanta in this matchup. The Falcons came out with a renewed sense of purpose that we haven’t seen from the NFC South residents all season long. Atlanta jumped all over the previously one-loss Saints from the outset to pick up a stunning 26-9 win while easily covering the chalk as a two-touchdown road dog in the process.

Matt Ryan passed for a modest 182 yards in the win while tossing two TD passes and one pick. More importantly, the Falcons harassed Drew Brees into a pedestrian effort that saw him sacked a career-high tying six times while failing to throw a touchdown pass. The Falcons have covered the spread in two straight after going 0-5 ATS in their previous five games. The good news for the Falcons is that they’ve pretty much owned Carolina the last few years and swept the Panthers last season.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 21.22
  • Total Yards: 377.89
  • Pass Yards: 301.11
  • Rush Yards: 76.78
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 28.78
  • Total Yards: 371.78
  • Pass Yards: 260.78
  • Rush Yards: 111.00

Why Bet On Carolina?

While Carolina lost for the second time in three weeks, there are a few good reasons to back the Panthers in this Week 11 pairing. Carolina had their chances before coming up short against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in last weekend’s 24-16 loss at Lambeau. Still, young quarterback Kyle Allen was solid in passing for 307 yards with one TD and one interception while superstar running back Christian McCaffrey rushed for 108 yards and one score. The Panthers actually held Rodgers without a touchdown pass but gave up three rushing scores to running back Aaron Jones.

Team Statistics

Offense:
  • Average Score For: 25
  • Total Yards: 346.55
  • Pass Yards: 215.11
  • Rush Yards: 131.44
Defense:
  • Average Score Against: 25.33
  • Total Yards: 363.45
  • Pass Yards: 226.78
  • Rush Yards: 136.67

NFL Week 11 Betting Trends for Falcons vs Panthers

 
  • Falcons are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 games
  • Falcons are 1-6 SU in the last 7 games
  • The total went UNDER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 9 games
  • Panthers are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games
  • Panthers are 5-2 SU in the  last 7 games
  • The total went OVER in 4 of Carolina’s last 5 games
 

Falcons vs Panthers Expert Analysis and Prediction

Prior to last week’s performance, the outcome of this Week 11 NFC South divisional battle would have looked like a near certain win for Carolina. Now though, after watching Atlanta come out and stomp Drew Brees and the high-flying Saints, I’m thinking they could do likewise to Kyle Allen and the Panthers.

The Falcons have won three straight in this rivalry and six of the last season meetings overall. Carolina has been held to 16 points or less in losses to San Francisco and Green Bay in two of their last three games while getting held to that figure or less four times this season.

While the favorite in this rivalry has gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings, the Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. While the Home team is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings and the Falcons are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Carolina, my gut is telling me that last week’s return of veteran quarterback Matt Ryan will be enough to help the once, Dirty birds cover the chalk in this NFC South battle.

Pick: Carolina 23 Atlanta 21

 

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