First Head Coach to get Fired Odds
I’m, sorry, but if there’s one thing I love each and every new football season, it’s looking for the most valuable NFL props and do some early predictions. One of these yearly traditions is predicting who is going to be the first head coach to get fired. Whether it’s right or wrong to take pleasure in another person’s failures is beside the point.
I simply enjoy being able to correctly predict the first head coach to be fired each year, just as I did last season by predicting that the Los Angeles Rams’ Jeff Fisher would be the first head coach jettisoned in 2016 (ya’ think?).
With the 2017 NFL season getting closer, it’s time to take a look at the recently-released odds on the first head coach to get fired this season – and no, silly, it most certainly won’t be New England’s Bill Belichick no matter how much you may hate the Pats.
Here is look at the odds for the first head coach to be fired this coming season along with a bit of a fun-filled, yet expert analysis on just what might go down after kickoff day.
July 3 Odds
Todd Bowles (NYJ)
Hue Jackson (CLE)
John Fox (CHI)
Jim Caldwell (DET)
Chuck Pagano (IND)
Bill O’Brien (HOU)
Marvin Lewis (CIN)
Sean Payton (NO)
Adam Gase (MIA)
Ben McAdoo (NYG)
Mike McCarthy (GB)
Mike Zimmer (MIN)
Mike Mularkey (TEN)
Dan Quinn (ATL)
Sean McDermott (BUF)
Doug Marrone (JAX)
Doug Pederson (PHI)
Jay Gruden (WAS)
Ron Rivera (CAR)
Sean McVay (LAR)
Jason Garrett (DAL)
Dirk Koetter (TB)
Vance Joseph (DEN)
Anthony Lynn (LAC)
Bruce Arians (ARZ)
John Harbaugh (BAL)
Todd Bowles +500
I know Bowles from way back in the day when he was a young defensive back at Temple University and my late father was coaching track and field and the school.
While I genuinely believe that Bowles possesses one of the best defensive minds in the game today (everyone knows this).
I’m also thinking he might want to get the hell out of New York by mid-season, seeing as how the Jets have one of the most dysfunctional front offices in all of football these days.
After unfurling a fantastic 10-6 campaign in his first season in the Big Apple in 2015, thing fell apart for Bowles and the Jets in a big way last season. The Jets won just five games while watching veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick turn into an interception-tossing machine after a lengthy holdout.
Now, heading into 2017, the jets still have a multitude of issues they need to address, starting at quarterback – and things don’t look very good.
Make no mistake about it NFL bettors, Bowles could be out of the Big Apple in a ‘New York Minute’ in 2017, which is why he’s the favorite.
Hue Jackson +525
It really doesn’t matter that Jackson went 1-15 in his first season in Cleveland a year ago, everyone knows that only some miraculous event could have helped the Browns become winners in 2016.
Jackson also won’t be fired in 2017 as he should get at least three seasons to fix a mess that was in place long before he ever set foot in Cleveland.
The Browns had a really good draft, despite foolishly passing on Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and some incremental success to maybe four or five wins. That will be good enough for him to keep his job for at least another season.
Don’t waste your money betting on Jackson to be the first head coach fired in 2017.
John Fox +825
I’m a little surprised that John Fox is the third favorite on the board, seeing as how he probably wants to fire himself – right now!
Fox went 6-10 in his first season in Chi-Town in 2015 , but sank to three victories last season in what was basically a ‘Murphy’s Law’ kind of campaign where everything that could go wrong – did.
However, he’s in a bad position heading into 2017 with a front office that looks incompetent at best. They signed veteran Mike Glennon to be their new starting quarterback – and then got fleeced by San Francisco in the NFL Draft – just to move up one spot to take unproven quarterback Mitchell Trubisky.
We may never know, but I suspect that John Fox can’t wait to get the hell out of the Windy City to either take another nice defensive coordinator’s job – or ride off into the sunset of retirement altogether.
Jim Caldwell +1050
Make no mistake about it people, after going 27-21 in three season in Detroit, Jim Caldwell is looking at his last year with the Lions, unless they make an extended playoff run (Ha ha, very funny!).
I know Caldwell has recorded two winning records in three seasons in the Motor City, which is a minor miracle in and of itself. But there’s a reason why the Lions are one of the worst franchises around and keep forcing their superstars to retire early.
My guess is that Caldwell makes it through the 2017 season, but that it will be his last in Detroit.
Chuck Pagano +1050
Maybe it’s me, but I have no idea why Chuck Pagano isn’t a bit higher on this list. The Colts have gone 8-8 in each of the last two seasons to miss the postseason after going an identical 11-5 and reaching the playoffs in each of his three previous seasons.
While Indianapolis still has an elite quarterback in Andrew Luck, the Colts simply seem to be treading water these days and making no real progress as Houston has taken over as the best team in the AFC South.
Now, heading into 2017, Indianapolis could be looking up at both, the Texans and the blossoming Tennessee Titans and that simply spells trouble for Pagano.
I’m just gonna’ say that Pagano would have been out the door the next day after calling the most insane fake punt in NFL history, back in 2015, which, by the way, failed miserably.
Marvin Lewis +1200
Okay, I’m probably the only person outside of his own family that still has any faith in Marvin Lewis (don’t ask me why, I’m not related). But I’ve got to believe that his time as the head coach of the Cincinnati Bengals is drawing to a close after 14 seasons.
It’s all very nice that Lewis has recorded seven winning seasons during his tenure in Cincy while reaching the playoffs in each of those campaigns, including five straight from 2011-2015.
But since he’s failed to win a single playoff game, again, I’m thinking the end is near. While I’m not expecting Lewis to get bounced during the season, 2017 could be his last with the Bengals.
I’m going with Todd Bowles to get the ax as my top pick, followed closely by John Fox and Chuck Pagano.l Athough I’ll admit that it’s a really gut-wrenching call between Fox and Bowles.
The Pick: Todd Bowles