Green Bay at Atlanta Expert Pick & Betting Odds

Posted by Michael Hunt on Friday,October 28, 2016 7:54, EDT in

Arguably the most interesting matchup of the NFL week and a game that figures to be a shootout is when Aaron Rodgers and the Packers visit Matt Ryan and the Falcons on Sunday. Barring a playoff rematch, it will be Green Bay’s final game ever at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons are slight favorites on NFL odds.

Here’s a Look at the Green Bay at Atlanta Expert Pick, Betting Odds & TV Info

When: Sunday, Oct. 30, 4:25 PM ET
Where: Georgia Dome
TV: Fox
Radio: Green Bay / Atlanta
Stream Option: NFL Live
Opening NFL Lines: Falcons -3 (52.5)

Why Bet on Green Bay?

The Packers (4-2) played their best game of the season last Thursday in beating Chicago 26-10. Aaron Rodgers threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns, and receivers Davante Adams and Ty Montgomery emerged as playmakers. Rodgers was 39 of 56, setting a franchise mark for completions in a game. It was the Packers’ first contest without injured running back Eddie Lacy, who is done for the season. Adams had 13 catches for a career-high 132 yards. Montgomery, who got the start in the backfield with Lacy (ankle) and James Starks (knee) out, finished with 10 catches for 66 yards, and nine carries for 60 yards.

Packers coach Mike McCarthy said recently acquired RB Knile Davis is “part of the game plan” this week. Davis could play more than the five snaps he saw against the Bears, but the Packers will likely continue to rely on Montgomery as their primary back in a pass-heavy attack. Packers OLB Clay Matthews is dealing with a hamstring injury. Matthews was forced to sit out Week 3 against the Lions with a hamstring issue, but McCarthy does not believe this injury is as severe. Matthews should play.

This is Green Bay’s first road game since Week 2 at Minnesota. Dating back to 2006, the Packers rank No. 3 in the NFL with a road winning percentage of .561 (46-36). Including the postseason, Green Bay has won four consecutive games against the Falcons, including two in Atlanta. The Packers are 17-13 overall against the Falcons, including a 2-1 record in the postseason. Eight of the last nine regular-season matchups between Green Bay and Atlanta have been decided by eight points or less, including six by four or fewer points. The Packers last lost a road game in the month of October in 2014 (New Orleans).

Why Bet on Atlanta?

The Falcons (4-3) lost 33-30 in overtime at home to the Chargers last week, blowing a 17-point lead. San Diego linebacker Denzel Perryman’s fourth-and- 1 stop on running back Devonta Freeman gave San Diego the ball at Atlanta’s 43 for the Chargers’ winning OT drive. Falcons coach Dan Quinn stood by the play call even though Freeman lost two yards on a run three plays earlier.

“Just a gut feeling I had,” Quinn said of the fourth-down decision. “Go be aggressive and get that half yard that we needed and when we didn’t get it that was (the loss).”

Matt Ryan passed for 273 yards for his NFL-record 46th consecutive game with more than 200 yards passing. He threw a 17-yard scoring pass to tight end Jacob Tamme in the second quarter. Ryan, who has passed for at least 300 yards four times this season, leads the league with 2,348 passing yards. With 406 passing yards on Sunday against Green Bay, Ryan would surpass Philip Rivers (2,753 yards in 2015) for the second-most passing yards through eight games in NFL history.

Atlanta will likely be without running back Tevin Coleman. He suffered a hamstring injury vs. the Chargers. Coleman has been a great No. 2 back behind Freeman with five rushing scores and a receiving touchdown with 19 catches. Freeman will be in for a big workload vs. the Packers, occasionally spelled by Terron Ward and Stevan Ridley.

Atlanta LB Vic Beasley has racked up 6.5 sacks and three forced fumbles through seven weeks. Beasley has helped spark the Atlanta pass rush that had major issues last season. The Falcons have 15 sacks in seven games compared to just 19 in all of 2015, and have dropped opposing quarterbacks 11 times in the last three weeks.

My Expert Pick

Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Underdog is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Over is 6-1 in Falcons last 7 games overall.

Take the Packers and over on NFL odds.