Green Bay at Kansas City Preseason Week 4 Free Pick & Lines

Posted by Jordan Walterss on Tuesday,August 30, 2016 9:05, EST in

You aren’t going to see Aaron Rodgers or most of the Green Bay Packers’ starters on Thursday night when the Cheeseheads close their preseason schedule by playing in Kansas City. The Chiefs are favored in NFL betting.

Here’s a Closer Look at the Green Bay at Kansas City Preseason Week 4 Free Pick, Lines & TV Info

When: Thursday, Sept. 1, 8 PM ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
TV: Check local listings
Stream: NFL.com
Radio: Green Bay / Kansas City
Opening NFL Lines: Chiefs -3.5 (38.5)

Green Bay vs Kansas City Historic Betting Series

It’s the eighth time overall and the sixth since 2010 that the Packers and Chiefs will face each other in the final preseason game. Green Bay is 4-3 when closing out the preseason against Kansas City and 8-7- 1 overall when playing the Chiefs in the preseason. The Packers have won three of the last four preseason matchups against the Chiefs and two of the last three regular-season contests, including a 38-28 win at Lambeau Field in Week 3 of the 2015 regular season. Rodgers threw for 333 yards and five touchdowns, including three to Randall Cobb. Green Bay built a 38-14 lead early in the fourth quarter before withstanding a late rush by Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs. Charles rushed for three touchdowns for Kansas City.

Green Bay’s last victory at Kansas City came during the 2007 regular season (33-22). The Packers have won four of their last five preseason finales. Over the last two years, Green Bay has outscored its opponents, 72-24, in Week 4 of the preseason.

Why Bet on Green Bay?

The Packers are 3-0 in the preseason for the first time since 2009. Last week they won at San Francisco 21-10. Rodgers made the most of his only appearance of the preseason, throwing a touchdown pass to Cobb. After being held out of the first two preseason games despite being healthy, Rodgers played two drives against the 49ers, going 6 for 9 for 60 yards. Joe Callahan, an undrafted rookie out of Division III Wesley College, went 16 for 24 for 167 yards with an 18-yard TD pass to Jared Abbrederis. Callahan probably starts this game. Eddie Lacy rushed seven times for 45 yards against the 49ers. Through three preseason contests, Lacy has amassed 114 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries, good for a 5.7 YPC average.

The Pack won’t play top receiver Jordy Nelson again here. But on Monday, Nelson had his first day of team (11-on- 11) work since tearing the ACL in his right knee more than a year ago. He said Sunday that he does not expect to play in the preseason finale, meaning he will go into the season without any game reps since he tore his ACL in Aug. 23 of last year. Nelson reiterated he doesn’t have any “second thoughts” or concerns about running or cutting on his surgically reconstructed left knee. Without Nelson last season, Rodgers finished with the lowest yards-per- attempt average (6.7) since he became a starter. Starting safety Morgan Burnett hasn’t played at all in the preseason due to a back injury, but Coach Mike McCarthy said he doesn’t have any long-term concern.

Why Bet on Kansas City?

The Chiefs (1-2) won in Chicago 23-7 last week. Alex Smith completed 20 of 30 passes for 181 yards before Nick Foles came in to start the third quarter. The offensive starters were scheduled to play into the third quarter, but they left at halftime because they took 45 snaps, an unusually high number for 30 minutes.

Cornerback Phillip Gaines, working his way back from a torn ACL sustained last season, made his first preseason appearance but wasn’t challenged. Gaines is in the running to start opposite Defensive Rookie of the Year Marcus Peters along with rookie D.J. White.

The Chiefs got Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry in practice on Monday but he probably won’t play this game. Berry, a four-time Pro Bowl selection, is the Chiefs’ franchise player. The sides couldn’t come to an agreement on terms on a multiyear contract before the July 15 deadline, leaving Berry no option but to sign the Chiefs’ obligatory one-year offer if he was going to play this season. Berry did that finally on Sunday. During his absence from training camp, Berry worked out during the same hours that the Chiefs were practicing. “I tried to tailor things toward the way practice is structured and the way the game is structured,” Berry said. The 27-year- old was a first-team All-Pro last season and also earned NFL Comeback Player of the Year honors.

“I would probably lean against playing him Thursday,” Coach Andy Reid said. “I would just give him time within practice to get himself ready for the opener.”

My Free Pick

Take Kansas City at home on NFL odds and go under the total.