NFL Houston Texans at Buffalo Betting Analysis – Week 4

Most NFL handicappers consider Houston one of the worst teams in the league, which is why it’s no surprise that the Bills, one of the best teams in the NFL, are 16-point favorites. Do the Texans have any shot of covering? Or will the Bills prove there’s no spread they can’t cover? Keep reading for NFL odds, analysis, and a free pick for Houston at Buffalo. 

NFL Betting Preview for Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

NFL Week 4: Houston at Buffalo Game Odds & Info

• When: Sunday, Oct. 3 at 1:00 pm ET
• Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard, Park
• TV / Streaming: CBS / Paramount +
• ATS Odds: Buffalo -16       
• Moneyline Odds: Houston +825 / Buffalo -1300
• Over/Under Odds: 47 

Why bet on Houston versus Buffalo?

Carolina covered in Houston’s last, beating the Texans 24-9. But before the loss to the Panthers, the Texans had covered in two straight. In fact, Houston upset Jacksonville 37-21 on the moneyline in their first game. The Texans must start rookie Davis Mills, but Mills played okay versus Carolina last week. Also, the points are too many. 

Houston Texans Offensive Averages

• Total Yards: 314.7

• Passing Yards: 220.0

• Rushing Yards: 94.7

• Points Scored: 22.3

• Turnovers: 2

Houston Texans Defensive Averages

• Total Yards: 385.7

• Passing Yards: 269.3

• Rushing Yards: 116.3

• Points Scored: 25.3

• Takeaways: 5

Why bet on Buffalo versus Houston?

Since the 16-23 upset loss to Pittsburgh in their first game, the Bills have rolled. Buffalo spanked Miami 35-0 as a -3.5 chalk in their second game. In their third game, the Bills dominated the Washington Football Team 43-21 as a -7.5 favorite. Buffalo’s offense has taken charge while the defense is starting to play well. The spread is huge, but the Bills can cover it. 

Buffalo Bills Offensive Averages

• Total Yards: 388.7

• Passing Yards: 261.3

• Rushing Yards: 127.3

• Points Scored: 31.3

• Turnovers: 3

Buffalo Bills Defensive Averages

• Total Yards: 252.7

• Passing Yards: 178.0

• Rushing Yards: 74.7

• Points Scored: 14.7

• Takeaways: 5

Texans at Bills Relevant Trends

• Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss
• Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on turf
• Under is 5-1 in Houston’s last 6 games as an underdog
• Buffalo is 4-0 ATS versus a team with a losing record
• Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite
• Over is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games following an ATS win 

Houston Texans versus Buffalo Bills Final Betting Prediction

Buffalo is the much better team, but this is too many points. Houston isn’t as bad as the points indicate.

Mills threw for 168 yards and a TD in the loss to Carolina. Considering the rookie faced the best defense in the NFL, he played above expectations. The former Stanford quarterback was constantly under pressure. 

But he didn’t throw a pick. Mills has practiced for a week with the first team. He’s got skill for days and should have some success versus a Bills’ defense that gave up 21 points to the Washington Football Team.

Buffalo will win. But the Texans are 2-1 ATS and have played competitively in every game so far this season. Houston will have some success versus the Bills’ defense. Taking the points.

NFL Week 4 Pick: Buffalo Bills +16

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