NFL In-Depth Betting Analysis of the New England Patriots' Offense

NFL In-Depth Betting Analysis of the New England Patriots’ Offense

2020 saw the New England Patriots have an uncharacteristic season. New England had won 11 straight AFC East Division titles from 2009 through 2019. But in 2020, the Buffalo Bills leapfrogged the Patriots and won the division. Not only did New England not win the AFC East, but they didn’t even finish second behind the Bills. The Miami Dolphins did. Based on the current AFC East odds, NFL handicappers expect the Pats to challenge the Bills for the division this season. If New England is to get back on top, their offense must produce. Check out an in-depth look at New England’s offense and an analysis of how the Patriots’ offense could affect their NFL betting lines

New England Patriots Offense Expert Analysis For the 2021-22 NFL Season

2021 NFL Season

  • When: Sep. 9, 2021 – Jan. 9, 2022

New England’s Offense – An In-Depth Look

Tom Brady left the Patriots after the 2019 season. While Terrific Tom led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl victory, his replacement in New England, Cam Newton, failed to make an impression.

Newton and New England finished at 7-9 and the Patriots missed the playoffs for the first time in a long time. Cam disappointed big time. 

The former Carolina Panther threw for just 2,657 yards, ranking twenty-fourth of thirty-two starting quarterbacks. Newton threw 8 touchdowns and 10 picks.

Cam did rush for close to 600 yards and score 12 rushing touchdowns. But as a team, the Patriots averaged just 20.4 points per.

Damian Harris led the Patriots in rushing yards with 691. Jakobi Meyers led New England in receiving yards with 729.

Feeling the team required a major change at quarterback, New England drafted Alabama signal-caller Mac Jones in the first round. Early indicators suggest Jones is all that and a bag of chips.

Jones looked great during the mini-camp. If he impresses in training camp, Jones will get the start ahead of Newton. Josh McDaniel’s system requires a drop-back quarterback. Newton isn’t that.

Also, Cam’s skills could diminish further this season. This isn’t the 1980s when head coaches wanted to sit rookie quarterbacks for a season or two. If Jones is ready he will get the start.   

How Will the Patriots’ Offense Affect Betting Lines?

Last season, the Patriots went 7-9 against the spread. Although New England should field a better offense this season than last season, their record ATS could be worse in 2021 than it was in 2020.

Why? Already, NFL bettors are reading too much into the Patriots drafting Jones. New England is not only second-choice to win the AFC East after the Bills, but they’re favored over the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 by a point even though it’s a road tilt.

If Jones gets the start, who knows? Maybe, he is the next coming of Terrific Tom. But if he doesn’t, and we must remember he’s a rookie, Newton shouldn’t improve in his second season as a Patriot.

So expect underlay spreads on the Patriots for the first month no matter who Bill Belichick decides to start. The over/under could be a different story. If Newton gets the start, New England could post a similar 5-11 over to under total that they did from last season.

But if Jones gets the start, the over/under could be a difficult bet. However, when it’s a difficult bet, it’s also usually difficult for oddsmakers. So make sure to dig deep if you want to bet the total on New England Patriot games. You may also have to get creative and think about how McDaniel plans on improving the Pats’ offense no matter who starts at quarterback.    


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