Jacksonville at Tennessee Expert Pick & Odds

Posted by Michael Hunt on Tuesday,October 25, 2016 8:41, EST in

The Thursday night games this NFL season haven’t been all that interesting if we are being honest. And the league is force-feeding a less than appealing matchup this Thursday as the Jaguars and Titans face off for the third straight season on a Thursday. The Jags have won the previous two but those were at home. Tennessee is a field goal favorite on NFL odds for this one.

How To Bet on the Jacksonville at Tennessee Expert Pick , Odds & TV Info

When: Thursday, Oct. 27, 8:30 PM ET
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville
TV: NFL Network
Radio: Jacksonville / Tennessee
Stream Option: NFL Live
Opening NFL Lines: Titans -3 (44)

Why Bet on Jacksonville?

The Jags (2-4) didnt look good at all on Sunday in a 33-16 home loss to Oakland to end a two-game winning streak. The Jaguars dropped a third straight at EverBank Field and added more speculation about the future of coach Gus Bradley. Jacksonville fell to 14-40 during Bradley’s four seasons. Don’t rule out him being fired after this game should the Jags lose and look bad doing so.

The Jaguars again struggled to score touchdowns in the red zone. They settled for two short field goals in three trips inside the 20-yard line against the Raiders, throwing an interception from the 18 and then failing to convert from the 8- and 9-yard lines. Jacksonville also took some stupid personal foul penalties.

Marqise Lee caught 7-of- 8 targets for 107 yards in Week 7 against Oakland. Allen Robinson caught 2-of- 8 targets for nine yards in Week 7. Jacksonville struggled to move their offense outside of some late fourth quarter drives. Robinson tied for the team lead in targets, but wasn’t on the same page as Blake Bortles and had two bad drops.

Bortles completed 23-of- 43 passes for 246 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. He was sacked once and ran for 33 yards on five carries. He started the first quarter 1-for- 6 for 3 yards and 1 interception, which came after he threw into triple coverage in the end zone. The Raiders entered the game ranked last in the NFL in total defense (444.8 yards per game) and pass defense (312.7 yards per game). Bortles has thrown nine touchdowns and nine interceptions — including two in the end zone — and turned the ball over 10 times in six games.

Bradley said he “firmly, firmly believes” in Bortles, and he’ll remain the Jaguars’ starting quarterback. Chad Henne doesn’t do anything for the Jaguars. He hasn’t thrown a meaningful pass in over two years. Bortles is 29th in both completion percentage (59.7) and passer rating (76.4), while tossing the third- most interceptions. He also is the NFL's worst third-down passer: 49.2 percent completions, one touchdown, six interceptions and a 9.0 QBR. Bortles looks nothing like the quarterback who set franchise records in passing yards (4,428) and passing touchdowns (35) in 2015.

Why Bet on Tennessee?

The Titans (3-4) lost 34-26 at home to Indianapolis on Sunday. Andrew Luck threw a 7-yard touchdown pass to Jack Doyle with 1:55 left to put Indianapolis ahead to stay. The Colts shook off 12 penalties for 131 yards in pulling out their 15th win in 16 games against Tennessee.

Too often, Titans QB Marcus Mariota missed the mark, and with 1:55 left in the game with a timeout and 75 yards to go for a winning score, he let a defender poke the ball free for a fumble that was recovered for a touchdown that ended the game. His final numbers were not terrible: 22 of 37 for 232 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions and a 95.8 passer rating. Titans RB DeMarco Murray ranks third in the NFL with 633 rushing yards and is tied for fourth in the league with seven scrimmage touchdowns (five rushing, two receiving).

Titans left guard Quinton Spain will miss 3-4 weeks with a hyperextended knee and bone bruise. It’s actually good news after Spain was carted off against the Colts. Brian Schwenke or Dennis Kelly will fill in during Spain’s absence. Titans WR Tajae Sharpe suffered a sprained knee in Sunday’s loss to the Colts.

Free safety Rashad Johnson has been diagnosed with a sprained neck. Their status is TBA. The Titans beat the Jaguars 42-39 last December in Nashville. Mariota passed for 268 yards with three touchdowns for a 118.2 passer rating and added 112 rushing yards with one touchdown, becoming the only player in NFL history to pass for at least 250 yards with three touchdowns and rush for more than 100 yards in the same game. Bortles threw for a career-high five touchdowns, including three to Robinson.

My Free Pick

I would take an alternate line of 2.5 points here and the Titans. I expect another close Tennessee win in this series at home. The teams have split the season series every year this decade.