Kansas City at Pittsburgh Free Pick & Odds

Posted by Jordan Walterss on September 30, 2016 in

It’s not the best of schedules in Week 4 of the NFL season as there’s just one matchup featuring playoff teams from last season and it’s Sunday night’s game from Pittsburgh as the Chiefs visit the Steelers. Both were wild-card teams in 2015. Pittsburgh is favored in NFL betting.

Here’s a Sneak Peek at the Kansas City at Pittsburgh Free Pick, Odds & TV Info

When: Sunday, Oct. 2, 8:30 p.m. ET
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh
Stream: NBCSports.com
RadioKansas City / Pittsburgh
Opening NFL Lines: Pittsburgh -5 (47.5)

Why Bet on Kansas City?

The Chiefs (2-1) won 24-3 last week against the Jets. They picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick six times, forced eight turnovers overall and scored two defensive touchdowns. Marcus Peters had two of the interceptions for the Chiefs (2-1), including the first of four in the fourth quarter. Derrick Johnson, Daniel Sorenson and D.J. White grabbed the others in the quarter. Eric Berry picked off a pass in the end zone late in the third quarter, and a fumbled kick return by the Jets’ Jalin Marshall was returned 27 yards by Demetrius Harris for another score. The Chiefs defense also has more interceptions in the end zone this year (4) than 10 NFL teams have total takeaways.

Alex Smith was 25 of 33 for 237 yards and a touchdown for Kansas City, while Spencer Ware added 75 yards rushing. Will this be the season debut of former All-Pro running back Jamaal Charles for the Chiefs? It’s possible. Charles has not played since tearing the ACL in his right knee in Week 5 last season. The Chiefs have the week off following the Steelers game, so holding the four-time Pro Bowl runningback out would essentially give him two more weeks.

Sans Charles, the Chiefs are using the option more than any other team. They have run the option seven times for 53 yards. No other NFL team has used it more than three times and 12 have not run the option at all. The Chiefs are the only team to score a touchdown on an option play.

Kansas City’s Smith, who is in his fourth year with the Chiefs, will start his 50th career game for the Chiefs on Sunday. He’s one of only six quarterbacks in franchise history to start that many games for the team. Smith already has more wins (32) than any other quarterback in franchise history in his first 50 games, and he has the best quarterback rating (92.6), completion percentage (63.9 percent) and fewest interceptions (21) by almost double than every other quarterback on that list.

Why Bet on Pittsburgh?

The Steelers (2-1) were stunned 34-3 last week in Philadelphia. Ben Roethlisberger had 257 yards passing, one interception and no TDs after tossing six in the first two games. Antonio Brown caught 12 passes for 140 yards, most of which after the outcome was decided. The Steelers were held to just 251 total yards of offense, which is the fewest they’ve had in three years.

“We lost just about every aspect of that one,” Coach Mike Tomlin said. “It was a poor performance by us, and I mean all of us. It starts with me. They outcoached us. They outplayed us. They were better fundamentally.”

The Steelers’ 31-point loss to the Eagles was the largest margin of defeat they have suffered in Tomlin’s 10-year reign. Before that, though, the Steelers had lost just five times by 20 or more points under Tomlin. The Steelers have responded with a win in their last four games after losing by 20-plus the week before. The only time the Steelers didn’t respond with a win after a loss of 20-plus was in 2007, Tomlin’s first year. The Steelers were beaten 34-13 at New England and then lost the following week at home, 29-22 to Jacksonville.

This will be the season debut of Steelers star running back Le’Veon Bell off suspension. Roethlisberger hinted that Bell could be used more often in the slot this season. Roethlisberger added the Steelers will use packages which get both Bell and DeAngelo Williams on the field together.

‘We’re not going to take RB off the front of his name and put WR,” Roethlisberger said, “but I definitely think he is one of our best receivers.”

Bell is one of the best route-running backs in the league, allowing offensive coordinator Todd Haley to create mismatches by creatively using Bell within the Steelers offense. One advantageous matchup that Haley looks to exploit is a linebacker or safety flexed from the formation to cover Bell when the fourth-year player moves out wide or into the slot.

My Pick

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Home team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Take Pittsburgh and the under in NFL betting.