NFL Kansas City At Pittsburgh Week 4 Expert Picks

Posted by Joe Solari on Thursday,September 29, 2016 6:11, EST in

This coming Sunday, the NFL lines will treat us to the classic tale of a clash between two teams with replica records but trending in opposite directions, when the Kansas City Chiefs, coming off a big win over the New York Jets, take on the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were utterly humiliated by the Philadelphia Eagles last week. With big expectation for each of these two franchises and some of the best talents in the NFL set to go against each other in this game, Heinz Field is guaranteed to be on fire as we are treated to this sizzling encounter between two playoff hopefuls. Let’s whet our online NFL betting odds appetite for this appointment TV face-off by checking out the comprehensive preview below.

A Closer Look At The NFL Chiefs At Steelers Week 4 Expert Picks

Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh
When: Sunday, October 2, 8:30 PM ET
TV: NBC
Live Stream: NBC Sports Live
NFL Lines: Pittsburgh (-5), OVER/UNDER 47.5

 

 

Why Bet on Kansas City

After belaboring for an overtime win over San Diego in Week 1, and then falling to the Texans in Week 2, the Kansas City Chiefs easily had their best performance of the season in a 24-3 hammering of the Jets last week. QB Alex Smith stayed true to his reputation as a game-manager, doing just well enough to ensure that KC stayed ahead of the game. Most credit, though, goes to star cornerback Marcus Peters and Kansas City’s defense that forced eight turnovers off the Jets, including a whopping six picks on Ryan Fitzpatrick. It won’t be easy forcing that many turnovers against the absolutely loaded Pittsburgh offense, but with Peters and gang showing the solid ball-hawking skills that were very evident in the team’s 10-game winning streak last season, you can confidently pen it at least three turnovers from this defense. Meanwhile, Smith should get help from the combo of Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West, possibly with Pro Bowl running back Jamaal Charles also making his long-awaited return from injury.

Why Bet on Pittsburgh

There’s not so many ways to describe how the Steelers played in their 34-3 defeat to the Eagles, except to say that they were caught flat-footed in all phases of the game and had their “butts kicked” as was befittingly put by coach Mike Tomlin. Ben Roethlisberger and his offense was a no-show, while the defense failed inexplicably to cope with Philly’s rookie QB Carson Wentz. Fortunately, after hitting rock bottom against Philly with their worst loss in 27 years, the Steelers can’t play any worse, meaning a better performance can be expected from them. If the team needs a new spark offensively, Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams should get help from the return of Le’Veon Bell, who will be making his first start of the season after sitting out of the first three games due to suspension. Defensively, the Steelers are a work-in-progress, but the team did hold Washington and Cincinnati to 16 points apiece, so Tomlin and his defensive coordinators should have a reference point to use as a guiding strategy against the Chiefs.

Expert Predictions and Picks

This series between the Chiefs and Steelers had been a head-scratcher, with Pittsburgh owning a 6-4 SU edge but Kansas City having a 6-4 advantage against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 overall meetings. As a note, though, the recent meetings have seen the SU and ATS trends favor the home team. For example, in 2015, the Chiefs won 23-13 at home to get the SU and ATS while the Steelers won 20-12 at home in 2014, also claiming the SU and ATS at the time. That trend, along with the fact that the Steelers will be extremely motivated to bounce back, makes us lean on Pittsburgh for the win and points this week.

On a different note, the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams. In addition, the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh’s last 7 games, and the total has also gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 7 games. More notably, Kansas City (as was detailed in our analysis), is a  perennial game-management team with a very good defense, while Pittsburgh will most likely place heavy emphasis on playing better defense after last week’s debacle. With these strong points considered, we feel that the UNDER will be a smart play in this game, especially now that the total is bloated at 47 and above in most books.

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh 24, Kansas City 18

Writer’s Picks: UNDER 47.5, Pittsburgh (-5)