Kansas City Chiefs 2018 NFL Postseason Betting Analysis

Kansas City Chiefs 2018 NFL Postseason Betting Analysis

Written by on December 31, 2018

By beating the rival Oakland Raiders 35-3 in NFL Week 17, the Kansas City Chiefs secured the 1-seed in the AFC Playoffs. KC gets a bye before welcoming the last seeded team left in the AFC Playoffs after the AFC Wildcard Round.

Because they’ve got the 1-seed, the Chiefs are the favorites to win the AFC. They’re the favorites from the conference to win Super Bowl 53. Check out an analysis of Kansas City’s chances to cover in either the Divisional Playoffs or the AFC Conference Championship.

Kansas City Chiefs 2018 NFL Postseason Betting Analysis

Chiefs Regular Season Record Against the Spread

The Kansas City Chiefs finished an okay 9-6-1 against the spread. The reason a winning record ATS is only okay is because the Chiefs failed miserably against the spread in the second half of the season.

They started the season great, going 7-0 ATS. Then, the wheels feel off. The Chiefs finished the regular season with a 2-5-1 ATS record. Although they covered against the Raiders in Week 17, they’re by no means hot against the spread heading to the postseason.

Kansas City’s AFC Divisional Playoff ATS Prospects

No matter any way you cut it, the Chiefs have a tough game in the Divisional Playoffs. They must battle the Indianapolis Colts, the L.A. Chargers, or the Baltimore Ravens. All 3 should challenge Kansas City against the spread.

The Chargers beat the Chiefs 29-28 in Week 15. Kansas City had the game won, but Philip Rivers rallied Los Angeles to the victory. Baltimore pushed Kansas City into overtime. KC pulled out a 27-24 win, but they had to work hard to do it. Indianapolis has been fantastic. Plus, the Colts are one of the few teams in the NFL that can hang at the quarterback position.

Patrick Mahomes is great. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is just as great. The Colts won’t be  a push over.

Kansas City’s AFC Championship ATS Prospects

If the Chiefs get past the Colts, Ravens, or Chargers, they must battle either the Houston Texans or New England Patriots. Kansas City will have trouble with either team. The Chiefs’ biggest issue is on the other side of the ball, the one where Tyreek Hill and Mahomes don’t play.

Kansas City allows 405.5 yards per. That ranks 31st in the league. They rank 31st in the league against the pass, allowing 273.4 yards. They rank 27th versus the rush when allowing 132.1 yards per.

New England, with Tom Brady, and Houston, with Deshaun Watson, are both great passing teams. The Chiefs would much prefer to battle the Texans than the Patriots, but they’d have trouble with either team.

If Houston beats the Colts, they take on the Patriots. There’s a chance Kansas City faces the Chargers in the AFC Championship. Philip Rivers and the L.A. Chargers have already shown they can beat the Kansas City Chiefs.

Bottom Line: Go Against Chiefs Against the Spread

Kansas City might be the 1-seed in the AFC Playoffs, but they’re going to have a tough time dealing with some very good teams. Although Patrick Mahomes and the offense are fantastic, the 31st ranked defense will even things out no matter whom the Chiefs face in the playoffs.

Kansas City should be a play against the spread in the AFC Divisional Round. If they get past their opponent, they’ll be a play against in the AFC Championship.

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