New England at Arizona Week 1 Odds Analysis & Free Pick

Posted by Jordan Walterss on Friday,July 15, 2016 9:37, EST in

The New England Patriots finally know what the deal is with Tom Brady: the future Hall of Famer and perhaps the greatest quarterback in NFL history will miss the first four game of the season for his Deflategate suspension. We should now be done hearing the word Deflategate. Because of this, the Patriots are 5-point underdogs on NFL betting lines in Week 1 at a very good Arizona team in a potential Super Bowl preview.

Here’s a Closer Look at the New England at Arizona Week 1 Odds Analysis, Free Pick & TV Info

When: Sunday, Sept. 11, 8:30 PM ET
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale
TV: NBC
Stream: NFL.com
RadioNew England / Arizona
Opening NFL Lines: Cardinals -5 (50)

New England vs Arizona Historical Betting Trends

The teams last met in 2012 in Week 2 in New England. The Cardinals weren't nearly as good then and pulled off a 20-18 upset. Stephen Gostkowski, the most accurate kicker in New England Patriots history sent a 42-yard attempt wide to the left on the next-to- last play — after making three longer field goals. Arizona's defense contributed by sacking Brady four times. And the special teams came through with a blocked punt that set up a touchdown. The Cards' QB that day was Kevin Kolb and they were coached by Ken Whisenhunt. Both are long gone now.

Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 1.

Why Bet on New England

I guess if you believe in backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo with the Brady suspension. Garoppolo has never started a regular-season game nor thrown a meaningful pass. w Garoppolo has progressed since the Patriots selected him in the second round of the 2014 draft, 62nd overall. He naturally has a better understanding of the team’s complex offensive system, understanding not only his own responsibilities but those of other players as well.

On Wednesday, the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Manhattan issued a one-sentence rejection of requests by the NFLPA and Brady to reconsider an April decision that found that NFL commissioner Roger Goodell acted within his powers by suspending the star quarterback for his role in a scheme to doctor footballs used in a January 2015 playoff game. So Brady won’t play until Week 5 in Cleveland. New England still has the NFL’s best coach in Bill Belichick, a fine defense and the incomparable Rob Gronkowski at tight end for those first four weeks. The concern for the Patriots is if Garoppolo was injured in those first four games as the current third-stringer is third-round rookie Jacoby Brissett.

Why Bet on Arizona

Because the Cards don’t have to face Brady! Garoppolo’s career stats? He has played in 11 games, gone 20-of- 31 for 188 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions.

One of Arizona’s best defensive players, linebacker Calais Campbell, is pretty happy.

“Licking my chops,” he said. “You get a rookie quarterback, pretty much. It’s always exciting when you get a guy like that for his first game, because he’s going to be nervous. He’s probably going to be sitting there holding the ball a little longer or trying to get rid of it quick, throwing bad balls. As a vet, we definitely pride ourselves on welcoming (inexperienced quarterbacks) the right way.”

Campbell should have confidence in the Cardinals’ defense, which ranked second in the league in takeaways, fifth in yards allowed and tied for seventh in points allowed last season. If there’s one area that the Cardinals struggled in 2015 it was taking opposing quarterbacks to the ground. The Cardinals were 20th in the NFL in sacks with only 36 and 35-year- old Dwight Freeney was their leader in that department with 8.0. To address this, they traded guard Jonathan Cooper and a second round pick over to the Patriots for pass rusher Chandler Jones, who had 12.5 sacks last season with New England.

My Free Pick

New England won’t totally fall apart without Brady, but go Cardinals on NFL odds and under the total.